Thursday, February 18, 2016

Two thirds of South Carolina Republican primary voters are dissatisfied with GOP congressional leadership, majority say country needs president from outside government. Trump at 35 leads GOP field in Feb. 14-16 Monmouth University poll, South Carolina likely Republican primary voters-Politico

Trump 35
Cruz 19
Rubio 17
Kasich 9
Bush 8
Carson 7

Feb. 14-16, 2016 Monmouth poll, 400 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters, live interviews via land line and cell phone, error margin 4.9

2/17/16. "Poll: Trump blowing out rivals in South Carolina," Politico, Nick Gass

"Buoyed by strong voter dissatisfaction with the Republican status quo, Donald Trump holds a commanding double-digit lead over all his rivals in South Carolina, according to the latest Monmouth University survey of likely primary voters released Wednesday afternoon.

Trump earned 35 percent, followed by 19 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 17 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 9 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 8 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 7 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Just 5 percent of voters say they remain undecided in the survey of 400 South Carolina voters.

Overall, 42 percent said they are completely decided ahead of Saturday's primary, with 31 percent indicating that they have a strong preference. Just 11 percent indicated a slight preference, and 17 percent said they are undecided on their candidate.

Nearly two in three of those surveyed said they are dissatisfied with Republican congressional leadership, and 30 percent responded that they are somewhat dissatisfied and 33 percent indicated that they are very dissatisfied.

Republican candidates have traditionally courted South Carolina with an eye to its heavy military presence, though just 17 percent of voters said veterans' issues are the most important factor in choosing a candidate, while 55 percent identifying veterans issues among several important considerations ahead of their vote.

Trump's advantage extends to nearly every demographic group surveyed, including among 

men (36 percent), 
women (34 percent), 
voters younger than 50 (34 percent), 
voters older than 50 (35 percent), 
voters in military veteran households (38 percent) and nonveterans (32 percent). 

Among evangelical Christians, Trump led with 33 percent support. He also leads among non-evangelicals with 37 percent. Cruz barely leads Trump among voters who described themselves as very conservative (31 percent to 27 percent), and among self-described somewhat conservative and moderate voters, Trump draws about 40 percent....

The Monmouth University poll, conducted via landlines and cellphones from Feb. 14-16, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Survey participants voted in at least one state primary in 2012 or 2014 or in both 2012 and 2014 general elections and indicated that they will vote in the state's Republican primary on Saturday." 


2/17/16, "SOUTH CAROLINA: TRUMP FAR AHEAD,'" Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray, press release including poll questions. "Front runner leads almost every voting bloc"

Question 5: "How satisfied are you with the Republican leaders in Congressare you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?"

"Somewhat dissatisfied 30
Very dissatisfied 33"

Question 4: 54% say the country needs someone from outside government


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