Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Trump at 36 doubles Republican field in North Carolina, 2/14-2/16/16, Survey USA poll, 437 likely North Carolina GOP primary voters. Trump leads by wide margin among North Carolina Evangelical voters

Trump 36
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Carson 10
Kasich 7
Bush 5 

Poll dates 2/14-2/16, 2016 (Jeb Bush withdrew Sat., Feb. 20), 437 Registered Likely North Carolina Republican primary voters, automated voice poll via home telephones or electronic devices, error margin 4.8. Sponsor: Time Warner Cable News North Carolina

2/17/16, "One Month to NC Presidential Primary, Trump Atop Rubio and Cruz; Clinton Well Ahead of Sanders; General Election Head-To-Head Matchups Favor Republicans if Clinton is the Democratic Nominee," SurveyUSA.com

"Trump, at 36%, leads Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who tie for 2nd place at 18%....Ben Carson...finishes 4th at 10%....Two thirds of the interviews for this survey were completed before George W. Bush campaigned in neighboring South Carolina for his brother Jeb; one third of the interviews were completed after Bush's appearance....

Trump's NC primary support grows from 32% among "very conservative" voters to 37% among "conservative" voters to 40% among "moderate" voters. Even though Cruz's support is disproportionately "very conservative," Trump edges Cruz in this key demographic [p. 3]. And: Cruz trails Trump (though Cruz edges Rubio) among North Carolina's evangelical voters [p. 3]. Trump leads Rubio by 17 points among "Strong Republicans." Trump leads Rubio by 10 points among "Independents who Lean Republican." Trump leads his nearest challenger by more than 2:1 among high-school educated voters and by 4:1 among voters earning less than $40,000 a year.

Trump is at 47% in Southern NC and at 28% in greater Raleigh. Cruz and Rubio are both weak in greater Greensboro. Cruz is also weak in Southern NC. Trump is at 41% among voters who have lived in NC more than 20 years

Among Republican primary voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign, Trump leads Rubio by 15 points.

Among voters who say health care is the most important issue, Trump leads Cruz by 29 points. Among voters who say that terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Rubio by 8 points.... 

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device." 


Page 3: Ideology

Evangelical voters:

Trump 36
Cruz 21
Rubio 19
Carson 10
Kasich 5
(Bush 5)


Very conservative:

Trump 32
Cruz 31
Rubio 18
Carson 8
Kasich 3
(Bush 3)



Trump 37
Rubio 23
Cruz 14
Kasich 9
Carson 8
(Bush 5)



Trump 40
Rubio 12 
Carson 10
Cruz 10
Kasich 9
(Bush 9)


Also page 3: Trump leads by wide margins among both "Strong Republicans" and "Independents" who vote Republican.


No comments: