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3/21/14, "The Roots of Russia’s Revanchism — Energy," William Tucker, American Spectator. William Tucker is news editor for RealClearEnergy.org.
"Western energy disarmament is proving suicidal."...
"Now flash-forward to 2014. Russia is the
world’s third largest oil producer, behind Saudi Arabia and the U.S, but
coming on fast. When Putin came to power in 1999, the country was
earning $41 billion from oil sales and Boris Yeltsin had just defaulted
on a $40 billion debt. Today they earn $410 billion. Russia is also the
second largest producer of natural gas, behind the U.S., and holds the
world’s largest reserves. Europe now depends on Russia for 30 percent of
its natural gas supplies and Gazprom is building a pipeline to the
Pacific Rim where the market is even more attractive. Altogether, oil
and gas exports earn Russia $160 billion a year and cover 60 percent of
the national budget.
Moreover, the two strongest economies in the
Western alliance — Germany and Japan — are both crippling their
economies by abandoning nuclear power. Japan spent $68 billion on gas
imports last year, more than half its $112 billion trade deficit.
Germany is doing even worse. In a fatuous effort to substitute
unreliable wind and solar energy for always-available coal and nuclear,
it is driving its utilities to ruin. Last week RWE, Germany’s
second-largest utility, announced its first annual loss since the
founding of the German Republic in 1949. The company is hammered by grid
regulations that require it to accept wind and solar whenever they are
available. This means ramping coal plants and reactors up and down at a
moment’s notice — virtually impossible — or running them for long
intervals without being paid. On top of this comes special fees to cover
the higher costs of renewable electricity. Last week, in a little noted
transaction, RWE announced it is selling its entire oil and gas
operations to — you guessed it — Russian oligarchs Mikhal Fridman and
German Khan. No wonder Putin is feeling his oats these days.
The
West’s unilateral disarmament over energy is reminiscent of nothing so
much as the fatuous behavior of Western Europe during the interval
between World Wars I and II. While Neville Chamberlain was excusing his
people from entering “a quarrel in a faraway country between people of
whom we know nothing,” France was disintegrating under Leon Blum’s
Popular Front where under that odd combination of proletariat obstinacy
and aristocratic insouciance the country dithered over redistribution of
income and inconsequential social issues until it was a shell of the
nation that had resisted the Germans for four years in 1914. When Hitler
invaded in 1940, it lasted less than six weeks.
Now Europe is
repeating the pattern. By backing away from nuclear and refusing to
frack, it leaves itself with no other choice than Russian gas. Japan,
Korea, and Taiwan are also spooked on nuclear and are increasing their
reliance on imports. Granted the United States — at least the middle
part of the country — is in the midst of an energy renaissance. But
sharing this bounty with our allies may be a different story. The
Department of Energy is approving exports terminals at a glacial pace
and there is opposition from Congressional Democrats who still haven’t
absorbed David Ricardo’s 1817 Principals of Political Economy and Taxation — not to mention environmentalists, who, with their usual upside-down logic, are arguing
that the best way to counter Putin in Europe is to keep the gas to
ourselves. And of course we haven’t built a new reactor from the ground
up in 30 years.
Russia and China, meanwhile, are rapidly pushing
ahead with nuclear technology. Russia is mounting small modular reactors
on barges to float into remote Siberian villages. China has 20 reactors
under construction and is about to explore thorium — a nuclear fuel
that most engineers believe to be superior to uranium. Within a short
time, Russia and China could be building reactors all over the world —
as Russia is currently doing in Iran. Ironically, this will leave the
two countries leading the world in the best technology for reducing
carbon emissions, nuclear energy. The energy gap is only likely to
widen."...
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