"Here’s the big surprise for me: Patrick thumped Van de Putte among Hispanic men, 53-46. These voters clearly didn’t find Patrick’s tough immigration stance offensive."...
11/6/14, "My biggest Texas election surprise: Patrick thumped Van de Putte among Hispanic men," Dallas Morning News blog, Rodger Jones
"A conventional wisdom bubbled up among media people like myself about the tenor of Republican Dan Patrick’s message on immigration. We concluded that his hard-edged border security focus in his campaign for lieutenant governor was going to stampede Hispanic voters into the waiting arms of Democratic statewides.
Wrong. Or at least partially wrong.
Patrick trailed Leticia Van de Putte among Hispanic voters by only 52-46, according to NBC’s exit polling on the race. I said “only,” because the 40 percentage range among Hispanics was once a mark of distinction for statewide Republicans. When George W. Bush reached 40 percent among Hispanics in balloting for governor, it was heralded as a breakthrough. Patrick was well into the 40s despite his so-called “anti-immigrant” rhetoric and calls for, among other things, repeal of in-state college tuition for Texas high school grads who are in the country illegally.
Here’s the big surprise for me: Patrick thumped Van de Putte among Hispanic men, 53-46. These voters clearly didn’t find Patrick’s tough immigration stance offensive.
One possible explanation is that Patrick had a lower-key fall race, letting the toughest talk from the primary fight mostly fade into memory. He didn’t do much to stoke those embers, but he didn’t run from his positions, either, such as during the one televised debate in the contest and in his TV ads that stressed border security.
Another explanation is that some Hispanics saw the name “Van de Putte” and thought it belonged to some Dutch banker. Was Van de Putte’s ethnicity known to enough Hispanics? Would more money and advertising have made a difference?
Another surprise is this: Patrick did better than fellow Republican and governor-elect Greg Abbott in all Latino categories, compared to NBC exit polling in the governor’s race.
Details:
– All Latino voters: Patrick 46, Abbott 44
– Latino men: Patrick 53, Abbott 49
– Latino women: Patrick 40, Abbott 39
This is astounding, considering Abbott’s big play for Hispanic votes based on his wife’s Mexican ancestry. How many times did you see his “Madrina” ad touting the support of his mother-in-law?
They were cut in both English and Spanish and ran statewide. You might conclude from this that there’s a point of diminishing returns if you pound men with warm fuzzies about their mothers in law.
Another surprise on Hispanic voting: Despite his outreach, Abbott did only marginally better this year in the Rio Grande Valley than Perry did four years ago.
– In Cameron County, it was Abbott 42, Perry, 41. Patrick got 37 percent.
– In Hidalgo County, it was Abbott 35, Perry 32. Patrick got about 30 percent.
Another consideration is voter turnout among Hispanics. I haven’t found statewide estimates, but Hidalgo County’s vote seemed paltry, at less than 26 percent of registered voters. Total turnout was 33 percent statewide, down from 38 percent in the last gubernatorial year." via Free Rep.
Image: "Texas Republican candidate for Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick speaks to the media at his election party headquarters Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014, in Houston. AP Photo/Pat Sullivan"
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Comment: I haven't been able to find total numbers for Dan Patrick v Van de Putte in the Nov. 4, 2014 election. I've spent 45 minutes looking.
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