Thursday, June 21, 2012

Jobs number misses w/e June 16, 2012, 7th miss in a row, 23rd of past 26 wks. 4 wk. average highest of the year

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Jobless claims for week ending June 16, 2012 came in at 387,000, up 1000 from previous week's initial report of 386,000. The 386,000 was later revised to 389,000.

6/21/12, "More Americans Than Forecast File for Jobless Benefits," Bloomberg, S. Chandra

"More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the labor market continues to struggle.

The median forecast of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for 383,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure,

  • climbed to the highest of the year....

Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 371,000 to 390,000. The Labor Department revised the previous week’s figure up to 389,000 from an initially reported 386,000.

The four-week moving average increased to 386,250, the highest since the week ended Dec. 3, from 382,750....

Payrolls in May expanded by 69,000 workers, the slowest pace in a year, and have cooled each month since January. The jobless rate, which climbed to 8.2 percent in May, has been stuck above 8 percent since February 2009....

Policy makers see 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent growth in 2012, down from their April forecast of 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent, according to Fed projections issued yesterday. They forecast the unemployment rate will end the year at 8 percent to 8.2 percent, up from April’s 7.8 percent to 8 percent estimate."...

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6/21/12, "Initial Claims Miss For 7th Week In A Row, "Improve" From Last Week's Bogus Revised Number," Zero Hedge

"And so the gaming continues: Initial Claims miss expectations of a 383K print, coming at 387K, a number which next week will be revised to 390K. This is the 7th miss in a row, and 23rd miss of the past 26 weeks. It is also the highest 4 week average since December. But the mainstream media has its soundbite: "initial claims decline by 2,000" because, lo and behold, last week's 386K print was revised to 389K. We have discussed this topic to death: little to add here. The ceremonial scripting by the BLS continues full bore. The only real data point in today's release: those collecting extended claims continue to hit the 99-week cliff, as 42K more drop off Komrade Samov's free lunch dole."...

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Weekly numbers are usually revised upward in hopes of allowing the next week's headline to make things seem better than they are:

6/7/12, "Initial Claims Beat Expectations, With Prior Revised Higher, As Whopping 105 Thousand Lose Extended Benefits," Zero Hedge


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