March 18-21, 2016 online poll, 573 Republican voters nationwide, 4.2 error margin
3/25/16, "NEW POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS THINK DONALD TRUMP IS THE BEST FIT FOR THEIR PARTY," Zogby Analytics, Austin, Texas
"NEW O'LEARY REPORT POLL RELEASED: A new poll shows that Republicans
nationwide prefer Donald Trump as their candidate for president over
"The O'Leary Report, who for twenty
years has done State of the Union polling with Zogby Analytics, wanted a
poll on the question, "What happens if Trump is stopped at the
Republican National Convention and the establishment airlifts in a
consensus candidate to run in the November general election?"
After talking to a number of "establishment" leaders, we determined that most thought Mitt Romney would be the likely choice.
Many felt that Romney would be acceptable to most state delegations
because he won the 2012 Republican nomination, and because of his recent
activity which includes
1) going on national television, urging
Republicans not to vote for Donald Trump;
2) having endorsed Marco Rubio
in Florida, which would give him acceptability to Rubio delegates,
having done robo-calls for Governor Kasich and Senator Cruz in Ohio,
having voted for and endorsed Senator Cruz in the Utah caucus.
We then chose to have Zogby Analytics do an online survey of 573
Republican voters nationwide with a margin of error +/-4.2 percentage
points. The poll ran between March 18-21, 2016. The question was "If
the election for President was being held today, and the candidates
were Donald Trump and Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?"
We asked the question this way to make it more generic rather than
get in to the complexities of an open national Republican convention.
50% of Republicans chose Donald Trump while 37% chose Mitt Romney, and 13% indicated they were unsure.
Trump clearly won with males 56/33%. With females, his margin was
He also carried retired Republicans 59/32%, and
every age group from 18-65+, including among parents 53/36%.
Trump lost among those Republicans who are liberal 29/46%, but carried moderates and conservatives.
He also carried Republicans with
college degrees by 48/41% and those with no college degrees by 52/34%.
Trump carried Catholics by a 55/37% margin, Protestants by a 50/38%
margin and Evangelicals by a 48/39% margin. Trump also beat Romney in
five of the seven household income classes, from less than $25K-$150K+ (Romney
wins among those who earn between $35-50K and $75-100K annually). Trump
won among NASCAR fans 54/35% and Tea Party supporters 55/37%.
Trump also carried Republicans who are members of the National Rifle
Association by a 63/33% margin. Romney had a problem carrying and
getting out the vote among NRA members in the 2012 election. In
comparison, Trump, who is a gun owner and concealed carrier, has a
strong second amendment platform in 2016 and looks to fare much better
with gun owners.
Trump carried members of the armed forces by 57/36%.
It's clear to us from these margins that Romney, who might have more
support than any other candidate, does not have the support needed to
unify the Republican Party.
To read this report, you can go to www.theolearyreport.com or contact Zogby Analytics for a copy at www.zogbyanalytics.com."
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Trump beats Romney in hypothetical contest, Zogby national poll, March 18-21, 2016. Trump won among Republicans with college degrees, conservative and moderate Republicans, Catholics, Prostestants, Evangelicals, and armed forces members. Romney won category of liberal Republicans-Zogby
Posted by susan at 8:53 PM
Labels: Trump beats Romney among Republicans with college degrees in Zogby poll of hypothetical contest