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12/9/14, "Gauging Whether Predictions of Change in Congress Match Reality," Wall St. Journal, Gerald F. Seib
"For some time now, you couldn’t go wrong by betting on dysfunction,
failure and paralysis in Washington. So it takes some courage, and
perhaps some suspension of disbelief, to suggest that maybe things will
start working better.
Yet conversations in the last week with senior lawmakers from both
parties indicate that some of them are actually starting to think there
is a chance Washington might start working better in the wake of the
midterm election.
These predictions aren’t based so much on the fact that Republicans
won control of the Senate in that election—though, of course, some in
the GOP would argue that—but more that
the election is being seen as
a
moment when voters declared that they have had enough of Washington’s
fractured status quo
and their elected representatives
found they had to
agree.
As a result, one Republican lawmaker says Congress now has what he
calls an “outsized opportunity” to start getting things done. One
Democratic lawmaker declares: “I do think there is a real opportunity in
the next Congress to tackle some big economic issues.”
Skepticism is called for, of course, but one big factor at work can
be summed up in this word:
embarrassment. In the Senate, in particular,
lawmakers are simply embarrassed at how dysfunctional their institution
has become. Republicans found that an effective attack line in Senate
campaigns was one charging that so few actual debates and votes have
occurred that even some senators seeking a second six-year term had yet
to propose even a single amendment that actually had ever been voted.
Whatever one thinks of any individual senator, it’s indisputable that
none of them worked to win election to what once was called the world’s
greatest deliberative body only to become inconsequential.
But words and sentiment are one thing, and action is something else.
So if you want to see whether these sentiments become reality, here are
three mileposts along the legislative road that will help determine
whether expectation of change matches up with reality:
–The federal budget for the rest of fiscal 2015. The tale on this one
will be told this week, as the House and Senate try to agree on the
simple act of passing legislation to fund the government—or most of it
at least—through next September. Republican conservatives outraged at
President Barack Obama’s
attempt to change immigration and deportation procedures by executive
order and without congressional consent, don’t want to go along. The
likely compromise is to fund everything except the Department of
Homeland Security to allow a chance to revisit the debate next year. If
both parties agree to that by week’s end, it will represent the kind of
compromise that often was elusive in recent years.
–Raising the federal debt ceiling. Sometime next spring—the exact
time is hard to predict—the federal government again will reach its
legally authorized debt ceiling, meaning it needs to be raised before
the government can keep paying its bills. In the last two years, that
has been the occasion for a market-rattling showdown between the two
parties. If a less cataclysmic path is agreed upon this time, that also
will be a sign of new attitudes on both sides.
–A transportation bill. Last August, Congress couldn’t manage to
agree on anything except a 10-month measure to fund highway and bridge
repairs, a half-measure that showed it was no longer capable of doing
even the things that used to be done relatively routinely. That also
means that, by the middle of 2015, Congress will have to tackle the
subject again, or risk entering the summer without providing the money
states rely on to do basic roadwork, among other things, during the
summer months. A transportation bill used to be the kind of regular
business that the two parties worked through to an uneventful
conclusion. That is the goal some lawmakers are setting for themselves
now."
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