US 1Q 2014 GDP estimate downgraded again to as low as 1.6%-Zero Hedge

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4/11/14, "The Market Is Too Dependent On Hopes That Await Evidence," Forbes, Sy Harding

Not Jim Cramer

"The economy (GDP) grew only an anemic 1.9% last year, down from 2.8% in 2012. Forecasts for the first quarter just ended are also for growth of less than 2%.

• However, hopes are that the economy will pick up in this quarter and for the rest of the year, and GDP will average more than 3% for the full year.

Corporate earnings growth has been declining for more than a year, and first quarter earnings, now being released, are expected to continue that downward trend.

• However, hopes are that the first quarter will be the low for earnings growth and it will rebound sharply over the rest of the year.

Conditions including valuation levels, overbought conditions, investor confidence, and so on, are at levels seen at most previous bull market tops.

• However, hopes are that the market is destined for bubble market conditions like 1997-2000, with the bull market continuing until valuation levels reach the unusual extremes seen at the bubble top in 2000.

At this point, the market needs more than just hopes.

Next week’s economic reports may be key in that regard, since they will provide updates on retail sales, new housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed’s ‘beige book’ analysis of economic conditions in its 12 regions....

As we approach the end of the market’s favorable winter season, with the market over-valued by most measurements, and the Federal Reserve rapidly tapering back the QE stimulus that has been so important to the five-year bull market, it’s time to be prepared to take downside positions in ‘inverse’ etf’s or short-sales when the time comes.

Being a market technician, as always I will depend on technical indicators, and the breaking of important support levels, to indicate when that time has come.

However, risk is already high, while the market’s resilience is still primarily based on hopes."

"Sy is president of StreetSmartReport.com and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post."...

Graph above from Not Jim Cramer via Zero Hedge 

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4/11/14, "Peak Hope," Zero Hedge

"The gap between current Q1 reality and forward-looking, hope-stuffed, unicorn-tear-fueled expectations for US economic growth has reached a new peak of Keynesian 'faith'. This week saw "economists" downgrade Q1 GDP expectations once again to a mere 1.6% growth (from 2.6% in January) - meaning that cold weather is responsible for a 46% collapse in US economic growth expectation. As the chart below 'hints' at, it appears we have reached "peak hope."



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Comment: I spent half an hour trying to find a source for an April 2014 downgrade of 2014 1Q US GDP to 1.6 as cited by Zero Hedge and Not Jim Cramer. I found nothing. The closest I found was a Forbes blog mention of "less than 2.0%" which appears at the top of this post. And that information required cookies. Zero Hedge was mentioned numerous times for its claim (above) that 1Q 2014 US GDP estimates were lowered again this week (ending April 11) but I found no other source for the claim. Either the revision didn't happen or there is a massive coordinated effort to withhold certain information from the public. Susan