Ohio newspaper poll favoring Obama oversampled Democrats by +6

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Poll conducted Sept. 13-18. Random sample 48D, 42R, 10I. Conducted by University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research for the Ohio Newspaper Organization.

9/23/12, "President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points in Ohio Newspaper Poll," Cleveland Plain Dealer, H. Gomez

"President Barack Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in the race for battleground Ohio, a poll commissioned by The Plain Dealer and the state's other major newspapers shows.

In a survey of 861 likely voters, 51 percent backed the Democratic incumbent, 46 percent the Republican challenger.

The Ohio Newspaper Poll found Obama has more trust on the economy, always a key consideration in a combative election year. A plurality -- 49 percent -- believe the president is better able to improve economic conditions in Ohio, compared with 44 percent for Romney.

"Clearly, how Ohioans view the two candidates in terms of their ability to improve Ohio's economy over the next four years will go a long way in determining who wins Ohio's 18 electoral votes," said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research, which conducted the poll for the Ohio Newspaper Organization....

In Ohio, early voting for the Nov. 6 election begins Oct. 2.

The landline and cellular telephone survey, conducted Sept. 13-18, has a margin of error of 3.3 points....

"The poll also unearthed few undecided voters and few true independents -- those not leaning toward one party or the other. Of the randomly selected participants, 48 percent said they were Democrats, 42 percent Republicans and 10 percent independent. Rademacher said the margin between Democratic and Republican respondents is typically between 5 points either way.

This makes get-out-the-vote operations crucial.

"In recent presidential elections there have been times when both Democrats and Republicans stayed home in large numbers," Rademacher said. "More Democrats than Republicans are expressing a likelihood of voting at this point in time, but it would not be unheard of for this to move around considerably between now and Election Day." via Free Republic


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