2/26/11, "Unscientific hype about the flooding risks from climate change will cost us all dear," UK Telegraph, C. Booker
"As the great global warming scare continues to crumble, attention focuses on all those groups that have a huge interest in keeping it alive. Governments look on it as an excuse to raise billions of pounds in taxes. Wind farm developers make fortunes from the hidden subsidies we pay through our electricity bills. A
- vast academic industry receives more billions for
- than the re-insurance industry,
An insight into this was given by a paper published by Nature on February 17, which claimed to show for the first time how man-made climate change
- greatly increases the risk of flood damage.
Among the eight authors of the paper are two of the most influential scientists at the heart of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Prof Peter Stott of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre and Dr Myles Allen, head of Oxford’s Climate Dynamics Group. Two of their co-authors are from Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a California-based firm which is the world leader
- in advising the insurance industry on climate change.
The study, based entirely on computer models, focused on the exceptional flooding that took place in England and Wales in the autumn of 2000. Its conclusion – that climate change
- could
increase the chance of flooding
- by up to 90 per cent –
was widely publicised, without questioning, by all the usual media cheerleaders for global warming, led by the
- BBC’s Richard Black (“Climate change increases flood risk, researchers say”).
When less partisan observers examined the paper, however, they were astonished. Although Nature has long been a leading propagandist for man-made climate change, this example seemed truly bizarre. Why had this strangely opaque study been based solely on the results of a series of
- computer models – mainly provided by the Hadley Centre and RMS –
and not on any historical data about rainfall and river flows?
The Met Office’s own records show no upward trend in UK rainfall between 1961 and 2004. Certainly autumn 2000 showed an unusual rainfall maximum, but it was exceeded in 1930. The graph between then and 2010
- shows no significant upward trend.
While 2000 may have seen a lot of rain, 1768 and 1872 were even wetter. In the real world, the data show no evidence of an increase in UK rainfall at all. Any idea that there is one seemed to be
- entirely an artefact of the computer models.
On Friday came the fullest and most expert dissection of the Nature paper so far, published on the Watts Up With That website by Willis Eschenbach,
- a very experienced computer modeller.
His findings are devastating. After detailed analysis of the study’s multiple flaws, he sums up by accusing Nature of “trying to pass off the end-result of a long daisy-chain of
- specifically selected,
- untested,
- unverified,
- un-investigated computer models
His conclusion is worth quoting at some length: “When your results represent the output of
- fed into a fifth computer model,
- whose output goes to a sixth computer model,
- which is calibrated against a seventh computer model, and
then your results are compared to
- a series of different results from the fifth computer model, but
- run with different parameters,
in order to show that flood risks have increased from greenhouse gases…” you cannot pretend that this is
- “a valid representation of reality”, let alone
“a sufficiently accurate representation of reality to guide our future actions”.
This is precisely why the Nature study is of such significance – because it will undoubtedly be used to guide future actions,
- which will in one way or another impact on all our lives.
- most influential scientists in the world in stoking up climate alarmism.
- will guide the actions of governments all over the world.
As for their two colleagues from Risk Management Solutions, this is not the first time that this leading adviser to the world’s re-insurance industry has been involved in a controversial bid
- to heighten alarm over the consequences of climate change.
In October 2005, in the wake of the Hurricane Katrina disaster, RMS held a meeting in Bermuda with four hurricane specialists, all of the alarmist persuasion, to quiz them as to how they thought hurricane activity was likely to be affected between 2006 and 2010, thanks to climate change, and how this would impact on the southern United States, notably Florida. On the basis of this meeting, RMS advised the re-insurers that the risk of hurricane damage over the next four years
- was hugely increased.
The companies found that their reserves were $82 billion short of what they might be expected to pay.
- Premiums, particularly in Florida, accordingly rocketed upwards.
Under the heading “The $82 billion prediction”, the details of this episode are chronicled on his blog by Dr Roger Pielke Jr, who in 2008 advised RMS that the methodology on which it relied was so biased that “a group of monkeys would have arrived at the exact same results”. Dr Pielke, an expert in environmental impacts, recently published a chart showing how, although the RMS prediction for hurricane damage between 2006 and 2010
- was a third higher than the historical average,
the actual cost proved to be well under half the average figure. But, thanks to RMS, the
- insurance industry had made billions from higher premiums.
In 2008, following the disastrous floods of summer 2007, that vociferous climate alarmist Bob Ward, now at the Grantham Institute but then a director of RMS, called for the British government
- to work more closely with the insurance industry
“to devise mutually beneficial strategies for dealing with flood risks”. We understand how working with RMS might be beneficial to the insurance industry. But whether, in light of the Nature study, the Government would find it beneficial is another matter – never mind the rest of us,
- as we are asked to pay ever higher insurance premiums,
based not least on the findings
- of those RMS computer models."
"Nature" Magazine is a Macmillan publication. Macmillan admitted
- taking bribes related to an educational trust fund:
- bribery payments relating to a trust fund-supported
- International donors have pumped millions into development projects in the African region through a
Macmillan told Reuters news agency it had reached a settlement with the bank."
The mere thought of such a crime shows a corporate culture utterly beyond redemption. With trillions of dollars at stake, why would anyone believe anything from a Macmillan Publishing property? Because everyone-except the middle class taxpayer--is in on global warming cash.
- Nature Magazine was the first to publish ClimateGate figure Michael Mann's "Hockey Stick" graph about alleged global warming in 1998. Following its acceptance by the prestigious journal, the United Nations Climate Reports of 2001 and beyond presented the Mann hockey stick as "settled science." Mann's hockey stick graph was used as a sales aid by Lehman Brothers to sell carbon trading financial schemes. Shortly thereafter, of course, Lehman brothers was bankrupt. ed.
- How the re-insurance industry got into global warming cash.
"Jeremy Leggett of Greenpeace International was one of the first to make the link between insurance losses and global warming. In 1992, he began to urge the insurance industry to take action against global warming,
- making numerous presentations at industry conferences."...
2/25/11, "No BBC/UK Government employee including Richard Black can be taken seriously while advocating global warming"
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Soros feels bad for us. The taxes and regulations he's used to strangle the US (with help from willing politicians) have hit their first slight breeze. He says other people are "selfish." Slight case of projection for the convicted criminal of insider trading in France, convicted of stock fraud and ordered to pay a fine of over a million dollars in Hungary, along with other fines and penalties over the years. Still an active hedge fund operator.
2/21/11, "Soros: Tea Party activists are being 'used and deceived'," The Hill
""And they (the Tea Party) are misled by people who are using it for their selfish purposes, namely to remove regulations and reduce taxation," he (Soros) continued.
- "So reduce taxation and regulation. And they are being used and deceived.""...
via Tom Nelson
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