Trump leads with 37% in new South Carolina Public Policy Poll, Sept. 3-6, 2015, Jeb Bush 6%. Trump 16 points ahead of field. Trump popularity is highest in South Carolina among all states Public Policy has polled and spans ideological camps across GOP

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Sept. 3-6, 2015 (Th-Sun). No link to poll or crosstabs. 3.6 margin of error. 764 South Carolina Republican primary voters

South Carolina poll, Sept. 3-6, 2015, Public Policy Polling, GOP presidential primary

Donald Trump 37% 
Ben Carson 21%
Jeb Bush 6%
Ted Cruz 6%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 4%
Rubio 4%
Graham 3%
Huckabee 3%
Paul 3%
Walker 3%
Santorum 2%

"Trump’s popularity is higher in South Carolina than in any other state that Public Policy has polled and spans ideological camps within the GOP, Jensen said." 

9/8/15, "EXCLUSIVE: SC GOP voters prefer Trump, Carson; most say Graham should drop out," The State, Jamie Self, Columbia, SC

"A Public Policy Polling survey found Donald Trump would win 37 percent of the vote from S.C. Republicans and Ben Carson would pick up 21 percent. The rest of the crowded GOP field of 17 candidates was struggling in the single digits....

When asked about the state’s own “favorite son,” U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, nearly four out of five S.C. GOP primary voters said the Seneca Republican should drop out of the presidential race....

Among S.C. Democrats, Hillary Clinton remains the top choice-at 54 percent-though Vice President Joe Biden has gained on the former secretary of state amid speculation he may enter the race.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 764 Republican and 302 Democratic primary voters in South Carolina from Sept. 3-6. The margins of error are plus or minus 3.6 percent for the GOP poll and 5.6 percent for the Democratic survey.

Trump’s popularity is higher in South Carolina than in any other state that Public Policy has polled and spans ideological camps within the GOP, Jensen said.

But the polls now likely do not reflect how voters will cast their ballots in the state’s Feb. 20 GOP primary, Jensen said.

At 80 percent, opposition to Graham’s presidential ambitions has increased, Public Policy found. In March, 57 percent of S.C. Republicans said Graham should not run for president in a Winthrop Poll....

The Graham campaign declined to comment Tuesday on the poll. Graham has said he hopes to do well in New Hampshire and South Carolina, paying his $40,000 filing fee last week to be on his home state’s primary ballot.

On the Democratic side, 24 percent of S.C. Democratic primary voters said they would vote for Biden for president. That is up from the 18 percent in a February Public Policy poll.

Nine percent of S.C. Democratic primary voters said they would pick U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, as their nominee in last weekend’s survey – consistent with polls this summer."... 

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Trump up in both Iowa and New Hampshire, +7 in Iowa, +16 in New Hampshire over nearest competitor, new NBC Marist polls, 8/26-9/2/15 (W-Tu), registered voters

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NBC News doesn't mention Trump or Republicans in its headline. Scroll down to second half of article for Trump news.

9/6/15, "Bernie Sanders Leads Hillary Clinton by 9 in New Hampshire, Gains in Iowa: Poll," NBC News, Mark Murray

"Trump ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire" (subhead, scroll down).

Iowa

Trump 29
Carson 22
Bush 6
Fiorina 5
Paul 5
Walker 5
Cruz 4
Jindal 4
Rubio 4

New Hampshire

Trump 28
Kasich 12 
Carson 11
Bush 8
Fiorina 6
Christie 5
Cruz 5
Paul 5
Walker 4
Rubio 3 

"Meanwhile, in the Republican presidential race, Donald Trump now holds a seven-point lead in Iowa and a 16-point one in New Hampshire. 

In the Hawkeye State, Trump gets the support from 29 percent of potential GOP caucus-goers, while Ben Carson receives 22 percent. There's a steep drop off after that: Jeb Bush gets 6 percent; Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul and Scott Walker get 5 percent; and Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal are at 4 percent. 

In July, Walker was ahead of the Iowa Republican field at 19 percent, Trump was second at 17 percent and Bush was third at 12 percent. 

In the Granite State, Trump is at 28 percent — followed by John Kasich at 12 percent, Carson at 11 percent, Bush at 8 percent and Fiorina at 6 percent; Walker is down to 4 percent. 

Back in July, the top three in New Hampshire were Trump (21 percent), Bush (14 percent) and Walker (12 percent). View the full Iowa poll here....View the full New Hampshire poll here....

The NBC/Marist poll of Iowa was conducted Aug. 26-Sept. 2 of 998 registered voters (margin of error +/- 3.1 percentage points), 390 potential GOP caucus-goers (+/- 5.0) and 345 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 5.3).
 
The NBC/Marist poll of New Hampshire was conducted Aug. 26-Sept. 2 of 966 registered voters (+/- 3.2%), 413 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 4.8) and 356 potential Democratic primary voters (+/- 5.2)."

 















image from NBC News
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9/6/15, Kasich Super PAC has poured millions into New Hampshire:

"Kasich has built a strong foundation in New Hampshire. A super political action committee, or super PAC, has spent millions of dollars to promote him on television there. And he visits frequently. Kasich held several town hall-style forums there last week and will return Monday for a two-day swing that includes a Labor Day parade and house party hosted by former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown.

When NBC News/Marist last checked in on New Hampshire, Kasich had climbed to fourth, behind Trump, Bush and Walker. Since then other polls have shown him surpassing Bush, who is about to hit the state's airwaves with a $500,000 ad buy.

The latest poll of New Hampshire Republicans has a margin of error of 4.8 points."...

9/6/15, "John Kasich sits at second place in new NBC News/Marist New Hampshire poll," Cleveland.com

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8/27/15, "Kasich super PAC spends $5M on-air in New Hampshire," CNN








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Crowd of 1000 cheers Ted Cruz in Huntsville, Alabama, Sun. August 9, 2015

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8/9/15, "Surging in poll, Ted Cruz brings presidential campaign to Huntsville," Alabama.com, Paul Gattis

"Greeted by a crowd exceeding expectations in Huntsville, Republican presidential hopeful Ted Cruz rolled into the Rocket City on Sunday evening as an apparent candidate on the rise.

In an NBC News post-debate poll released Sunday, Cruz rose to No. 2 among the 17 GOP candidates
– an indication, the junior senator from Texas said, that his campaign is resonating with voters.

"God bless the great state of Alabama," Cruz said in greeting a crowd estimated by local Republican officials as more than 1,000 in the Jackson Center in Cummings Research Park. "Holy cow! I think we've got the whole state of Alabama in here." Indeed, all but a handful of chairs were removed from the ballroom where Cruz spoke to accommodate the crowd – the vast majority of which stood for the hour that Cruz spoke and took questions from the audience. 

Cruz made stops in Pelham and Birmingham earlier Sunday as part of a Deep South swing that will take him on Monday to four stops in Tennessee followed by speeches in Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma by week's end.

U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Huntsville, introduced Cruz and told the audience that the Cruz campaign was hoping for about 400 to 500 people to attend the rally. Instead, Brooks said the campaign received more than 1,400 RSVPs.

 
The crowd snacked on campaign-provided ice cream before the speech, then squeezed into the ballroom waving signs and cheering virtually every statement Cruz made.

He reiterated staples of recent campaign speeches – outlining his plan for his first day as president by, among other things, undoing all "illegal executive orders" by President Obama, calling for an investigation into Planned Parenthood and dismantling the IRS.

Cruz touted his fundraising as well, saying that at $14 million, he raised more than any other GOP candidate in the last quarter.

He also took shots at Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, joking about the planned Democratic debate that hasn't happened yet. "The invitation was emailed to Hillary," Cruz said. A chorus of laughter followed.

Online, our fundraising exploded after the debate. 

"Listen, if you think Washington is doing great, that we're heading in the right direction and we just need someone to fiddle around the edges, then I ain't your guy," Cruz said. "If you think Washington is fundamentally broken, that there are career politicians in both parties who aren't listening to the American people..."
His voice then became drowned out as cheers and applause came as the response.
The NBC News poll released Sunday gave at least a snapshot of growing support for Cruz in wake of Thursday's GOP debate in Cleveland.

According to the poll, Donald Trump remains the frontrunner with 23 percent of Republican voters giving him their support. Cruz was second with 13 percent – rising from the crowded GOP field with the Republican National Convention 11 months away.

Ben Carson was third with 11 percent, followed by Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio with 8 percent each.

Cruz also had the largest percentage jump from last week at 7 percent, according to the poll.

"We're certainly encouraged by NBC's new polling numbers," Cruz said when asked by AL.com for his reaction to the poll before his speech. "That surge is, I think, the result of men and women across this country who are looking for a strong, proven, consistent conservative. Online, our fundraising exploded after the debate. We saw people all over the country going to TedCruz.org contributing online.

"It's been amazing in just over four months, we've had over 225,000 contributions (at the website). It's been from all 50 states, all five territories. Our average contribution has been $68. We have contributors in 48.1 of the ZIP codes in America have one or more contributors to our campaign. The strength of this campaign is that it comes from the grassroots. It comes from the people. That's what this campaign is. I could not be more encouraged."" via Free Rep.

Above images of Ted Cruz in Huntsville, Alabama, 8/9/15, by Bob Gathany/bgathany@AL.com





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Memo from Iowa: If caucuses were today Ted Cruz would win. Iowa conservatives seek change agents, not managers, GOP ball players are of no interest, nor is whom Fox News prematurely anoints-Steve Deace

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4/20/15, "A memo to all GOP presidential candidates not named Ted Cruz," Steve Deace, Washington Times

"Here’s why if the Iowa caucuses were today he would win and you wouldn’t."

"This memo amounts to an intervention. It serves to warn all other Republican presidential campaigns of a perfect storm looming on the horizon. Not only does the storm favor Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, but your combined failures/refusals to recognize it are only helping him. If that environment persists, Mr. Cruz will not only win Iowa next year, but win it convincingly.

Your skepticism of Mr. Cruz's candidacy, and willingness to play ball with a system the average Iowa conservative no longer trusts, is helping to positively brand Mr. Cruz to voters looking for a fighter and an outsider.

And that is what the majority of 2016 Iowa Caucus voters are looking for.

Now before you (and your consultants) get defensive and immediately dismiss this memo as a ridiculous polemic written by a rube, please remember a few things.

My record predicting the outcome of elections in Iowa is proven. For this reason, many of your campaigns have already sought out my take on the lay of the land here. Several of you have already appeared on my radio show to speak to my audience. Some of your campaigns have even asked me for staffing referrals. And I just moderated the first joint candidate forum of the 2016 cycle in front of about a thousand Iowa Caucus voters/activists.

Given this track record, I hope you’ll each take this in the spirit it is intended. I know several of you personally, would be proud to vote for many of you, and am grateful to have such a strong field. 

Nonetheless, if the caucuses were today you’d all be fighting for second behind Mr. Cruz.

While it’s definitely still early enough to change things, you won’t do that by trying to bend the electorate to your candidacy. Instead, your candidacy needs to acknowledge the environment, figure out why Mr. Cruz is surging, and strategize accordingly. Permit me to offer a few tips:

1. You’re not entitled to anything.

There are no political saviors, and Iowa Caucus voters aren’t looking for one. Just because you may have run here before doesn’t mean a bunch of folks were just waiting for you to show up and put the band back together. There’s not much of a nostalgia market. Having the deep baritone voices on Fox News prematurely anoint you as the front runner doesn’t overly impress, either. Nor are voters going to entertain any late-entering rock stars promising last-minute deliverance. And if you want to run on your personality instead of where you’re at on the issues conservatives care most about, you’re wasting our time and yours. Iowa conservatives are looking for a candidate who earns their vote and is willing to make the necessary connections to do so. Mr. Cruz is connecting with conservatives based on what he’s willing to do for them.
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2. Fighting for what we believe in is an accomplishment.

I’ve already had several candidates, or their advisers, lament to me privately they can’t believe Mr. Cruz is taken seriously because “he hasn’t accomplished anything.” They’ll also say “he loses every fight.” However, what many of you don’t realize when you say these things is you’re not just undermining Mr. Cruz, but offending the very voters you’re also trying to woo.

For example, when my enemy keeps pushing me back and I keep giving ground, I eventually come to the end of the cliff. One more step and it’s overboard. Yet my enemy keeps pressing on. At that point, I grab every rock, stick, or pile of dirt I can and start flinging it at my enemy to try and regain some ground before it’s too late. My survival instinct kicks in, and survival in this situation is a strategy. 

When I'm in survival mode, I need the people claiming to be on my side fighting alongside me rather than critique the way I'm fighting.

This analogy is how many Iowa conservatives see the country. It gives them a sense of urgency most people in the political class, even if they’re conservatives, fail to grasp. Mr. Cruz latched on to this early on, and now Iowa conservatives see Mr. Cruz as one of them.

So while the political class sees Mr. Cruz’s fight to defund Obamacare as a loser because it ended in a government shutdown, the conservative base out here sees it far differently. After witnessing most Republicans of this era fail to fight for anything, they value Mr. Cruz's willingness to stand up for what they believe in regardless of the blowback. Not coincidentally, the candidate other than Mr. Cruz I'm being asked the most about at the moment is Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Precisely because people are also starting to see him as a fighter.
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. 3. Conservatives want change agents, not managers.

Too many of you are listing accomplishments like balancing budgets when Iowa conservatives think the budget is too damned big whether it’s balanced or not. Voters are looking for transformers, not technocrats. Besides, the only people who care about running this government nobody trusts better than the Democrats do are already voting for Jeb Bush.
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And nobody is applauding you voting for the latest big government “fix” because they think the fix is in — and they’re the ones getting the shaft. This is not a time for pouring old wine into new wineskins, and conservatives aren’t looking for reform, either, despite what your consultants are telling you. They don’t want to reform a government threatening their liberties. They want to change it.
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The fact that all the people Iowa conservatives loathe also loathe Mr. Cruz only helps to brand him as such a change agent. Most of you need more and better enemies giving you similar “endorsements.”
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4. Voters are looking to their futures, not your past.
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Unless you count how he helped win several key Supreme Court cases, Cruz’s resume is thin compared to many of you. However, many conservatives are overlooking that because they can see him being the champion needed to preserve American Exceptionalism for future generations. Therefore, you won’t beat Cruz by itemizing your past accomplishments. You must show conservatives why your past proves you’re what’s best for their future.
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5. People want to decide on a candidate early.
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Every person I talked to after I moderated the candidate forum brought this up, and I receive emails and texts on this subject every day as well. Conservatives want to avoid a three-peat after waiting too long to coalesce around a common cause the past two cycles. Then watching the establishment capture the nomination.

Mr. Cruz has benefitted greatly by officially declaring his candidacy first in order to capitalize on that sentiment. This isn’t going to be a year when people wait around until December to decide what to do. They are deciding right now because they know they have to beat Jeb to beat Hillary.
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I conclude this memo by reminding you of what’s at stake in Iowa. No one who didn't finish in the top three in Iowa has ever become the GOP nominee, and every time someone wins two of the first three early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina) they’ve always gone on to win the nomination.

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So get organized, get a message, and get your stuff together before it’s too late."
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"(Steve Deace is a nationally-syndicated talk show host and also the author of the new book “Rules for Patriots: How Conservatives Can Win Again.” You can “like” him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter @SteveDeaceShow.)" via Free Rep.

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