“In the former coronavirus hotspot provinces of Bergamo and Cremona (both within Lombardy region), IgG antibody prevalence was 24% and 19%, matching other global hotspots like New York [23.2%, click Rd. 2, see below] and once again confirming a ~20% IgG antibody prevalence threshold….The population-adjusted Covid lethality (IFR) is likely close to 0.1%, as 80% or more of the population may already have come into contact with the new coronavirus.”
8/5/20, “Covid19: Italian Antibody Data,” Swiss Policy Research
In the former coronavirus hotspot provinces of Bergamo and Cremona (both within Lombardy region), IgG antibody prevalence was 24% and 19%, matching other global hotspots like New York [23.2%, click Rd. 2, see below] and once again confirming a ~20% IgG antibody prevalence threshold.
(Earlier reports that Bergamo allegedly had 57% antibody prevalence were likely based on hospitalized patients or severe cases and were not representative for the whole population.)
27% of people with antibodies remained asymptomatic, 23% had 1-2 (mild) symptoms, and 41% had 3 or more symptoms or a temporary loss of the sense of smell or taste.
Importantly, only 25% to 27% of people who reported a temporary loss of the sense of smell or taste – a very typical Covid-19 symptom – had IgG antibodies.
This confirms the results of the previous Spanish antibody study and once again shows that only a fraction of the people who likely had contact with the new coronavirus (need to) develop IgG antibodies to neutralize the virus. Instead, many people neutralize the virus with pre-existing or new T-cells or with mucosal (IgA) antibodies, as first shown by a Swiss immunological study. In turn, this means that even in former hotspots like Bergamo – which pioneered the fatal strategy of moving Covid patients into nursing homes, a mistake later copied by places like New York and New Jersey – the population-adjusted Covid lethality (IFR) is likely close to 0.1%, as 80% or more of the population may already have come into contact with the new coronavirus.
However, Bergamo was caught off guard by the very rapid pre-symptomatic spread of the virus and subsequently suffered a collapse of its elderly care and health care system and an extremely high mortality during several weeks in March, leading to the notorious television images.
While places like Bergamo and Cremona likely reached the much-cited “herd immunity” threshold, most other regions of Italy are still far from such levels and thus remain vulnerable to the new coronavirus. The same is true for places like Germany with only 1.3% IgG prevalence.
Instead of permanently or repeatedly locking down their societies while waiting for an uncertain vaccine, these and many other places should urgently consider an early treatment strategy for the high-risk segment of their population and study the Swedish approach to pandemic management.
Interestingly, it was an Italian group that first proposed (based on German virological research) to repurpose the simple over-the-counter mucolytic cough medication bromhexine to block TMPRSS2/ACE2-dependent cell entry of the new coronavirus – recently found to be successful.
Moreover, Italian doctors were among the first in Europe (after successes in China and South Korea) to apply the malaria drug HCQ in an outpatient setting (at home) during lockdown, a strategy that dramatically reduced hospitalization and death rates among their patients.”
More: Results of the Italian antibody seroprevalence study (ISTAT, August 3, 2020)
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Added: CDC antibody results for NY City metro as of May 6, reported July 21, 2020, “Interactive Serology Dashboard for Commercial Laboratory Surveys,” cdc.gov
“Seroprevalence detail for New York City Metro,” Samples collected April 25-May 6, 2020 (Round 2)
2.8 million New York metro residents, 23.2% of the population had already been “infected" by May 6, many without even knowing it.
Before antibody results, as of May 6, “cases” or “infections” were reported to be only: 281,670
After antibody results, as of May 6, “cases” or “infections” were reported to be 2,832,000, 23.2% of the population. Many had no idea they’d been “infected,” no symptoms of any illness. In some cases, symptoms were mild.
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For those interested:
Although the Staten Island Advance managed to report the virtually unknown but game-changing Covid antibody news (above), it tried hard to hide it. The all-important headline announces yet more catastrophically hopeless Covid news for the NY City area. (Bad news=cronies get trillions more free US taxpayer cash).
“CDC data shows coronavirus infections far higher in NYC than reported cases indicated”
It’s actually great news, which is that 2.8 million New Yorkers are “infected” and walking around with Covid, meaning that it’s by no means a death sentence for healthy, non-elderly populations.
July 21, 2020, “CDC data shows coronavirus infections far higher in NYC than reported cases indicated,“ Staten Island Advance
The important first paragraph continues the negative framing, also omits mention of the two huge money points: one, that antibodies were studied, and two, that there were 2.8 million so-called “infected” people walking around, ten times more than the 281,670 “officials” had reported as of May 6:
“Data published Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that actual coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in New York City were at least 10 times higher than reported cases showed.”…
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