Trump approval among Likely Voters: 8/31/18, and full month of August 2018
One: Daily Tracking Poll, Friday, 8/31/18, 500 Likely Voters-48, Total Likely Voters, 82 Republican Likely voters, 46% Independent Likely Voters, 21% Democrat Likely Voters
Two: Full month of August 2018, 10,000 Likely Voters–47, Total Likely Voters, up 1 point from July 2018. Republican Likely Voters 79%, Independent Likely Voters 46%
(Some Rasmussen data is free, some is subscription. Some data here may be from Rasmussen Platinum which is subscription. I’m a subscriber. Susan)
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Presidential Approval, Likely Voters, Daily Tracking Poll
Friday, August 31, 2018:
Total Likely Voters (R,D,I): 48%
Republican Likely Voters: 82%
Independent Likely Voters: 46%
Democrat Likely Voters: 21%
“Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis.”
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Trump Approval Index Month of August 2018:
Trump up 1 point in August 2018 vs July 2018, among Likely Voters:
Full month of August 2018, 10,000 Likely Voters contacted, 1% error margin:
“Daily tracking results are collected via telephone and online surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 10,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.”
Total Likely Voters: 47%
Republican Likely Voters: 79%
Independent Likely Voters: 46%
Democrat Likely Voters: 20%
(Added: Obama approval in August 2011 was 44%.)
8/31/18, “Trump Approval Index Month-by-Month”
“Trump Full-Month Approval Up in August”
“When tracking President Trump’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results for Trump’s presidency can be seen in the graphics below. The president earned a monthly job approval of 47% in August, up one point from July and just two points shy of 49% in April, his high for the year to date.
Fifty-one percent (51%) disapproved of his job performance last month, down one point from the month before.… Daily tracking results are collected via telephone and online surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 10,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.”
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Added: 7/27/2018, "More Republicans Align With Trump, Not Congress," Rasmussen poll
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Added: Likely Voters consider Illegal Immigration a major problem, 8/30/2018: 87% of Republicans and 68% of voters not affiliated with either major party see illegal immigration as a serious problem. 67% of Republicans and a plurality (45%) of unaffiliateds say the government isn’t doing enough to combat the problem. “Illegal immigration is the number one election concern for 19% of all voters, up from eight percent (8%) a year ago.”
Poll dates, August 26-27, 2018, 1000 Likely Voters, 3% error margin, national automated telephone survey combined with online survey
8/30/18, “Immigration Update,” Rasmussen
“Voters continue to believe illegal immigration is a major problem, and few feel the government is doing enough to handle it.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 68% of Likely U.S. Voters think illegal immigration is a serious problem in America today, with 43% who consider it Very Serious….
There’s a sharp partisan difference of opinion, though. While 87% of Republicans and 68% of voters not affiliated with either major party see illegal immigration as a serious problem, 50% of Democrats disagree. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democratic voters think the government is doing too much about illegal immigration, but 67% of Republicans and a plurality (45%) of unaffiliateds say it isn’t doing enough to combat the problem.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 26-27, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
A sizable majority of voters says illegal immigration is a critical issue for them in the upcoming congressional elections, but they also suspect most candidates raise the topic for political purposes only, not to deal with it….
Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing think illegal immigration is a Very Serious problem, a view shared by only 13% of those who Strongly Disapprove of his job performance. While 61% of those who Strongly Disapprove believe the government is doing too much, 77% of those who Strongly Approve say it is doing too little.
Among voters who regard illegal immigration as a Very Serious problem, 78% say the government is doing too little to stop it.
Illegal immigration is the number one election concern for 19% of all voters, up from eight percent (8%) a year ago….
Most voters (52%) think illegal immigrants are a significant strain on the U.S. budget, and 45% believe illegal immigration increases the level of serious crime in America.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.”
“Methodology”
“Data for Rasmussen Reports survey research is collected using an automated polling methodology.
Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.
For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the automated technology ensures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.
All Rasmussen Reports’ survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.
After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to ensure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.
Additional Information on Methodology
Comparing Approval Ratings From Different Polling Firms
The Value of Party Weighting for a Tracking Poll
Why Polls Sometimes Show Different Results
Little Day of Week Bias in Presidential Tracking Poll
Latest Partisan Identification Estimates”
Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.
For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the automated technology ensures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.
All Rasmussen Reports’ survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.
After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to ensure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.
Additional Information on Methodology
Comparing Approval Ratings From Different Polling Firms
The Value of Party Weighting for a Tracking Poll
Why Polls Sometimes Show Different Results
Little Day of Week Bias in Presidential Tracking Poll
Latest Partisan Identification Estimates”
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