.
Trump 28
Cruz 23
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Paul 5
Christie 3
Bush 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
Poll dates, Jan. 26-29, 2016 (Wed.-Sat.). 602 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants. 4% error margin. "Supporters of Trump are the most decided," 71% say their decision is final. Telephone interviews. Link to poll.
1/30/16, "Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses," Bloomberg, John McCormick
"Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa's
caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday
evening's turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those
attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register
Iowa Poll shows.
The findings before the first ballots are cast in
the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of
28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas
senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.
The
billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they
definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less
committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz,
27 percent to 21 percent.
“Trump
is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the
fringe—that’s what any candidate would want," said longtime Iowa
pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey for the news
organizations.
Read the poll questions and methodology here.
The poll's findings are based on 47 percent of those likely to attend
considering themselves evangelical or born again Christians. When
re-weighted as a scenario test for the higher evangelical turnout seen
in 2012 entrance polls, the race is closer, with 26 percent for Trump
and 25 percent for Cruz.
A Trump victory could significantly boost
his chances of winning his party's nomination, while a second-place
finish for Cruz would be a major setback for a candidate who has
invested heavily in Iowa and enjoyed strong support from evangelical
Christians who form a large part of the state’s electorate. Trump is
dominating in polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the two
states that follow Iowa in the nomination calendar.
Just two days
before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, the race remains fluid, even
after hundreds of campaign stops in Iowa, tens of millions of dollars of
advertising and seven nationally televised debates.
More than
half—55 percent—say their mind is made up, while 45 percent say they
either don't have a first-choice candidate or could still be persuaded
to pick someone else. In the final Iowa Poll before the 2012 Republican
caucuses, 51 percent say they had their minds made up.
Trump's
advantage over Cruz is a reversal of the race in the previous Bloomberg
Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in early January, when he trailed
25 percent to 22 percent.
Under near constant attack from Trump
since December, Cruz’s favorability rating has also dropped—by 11 points
to 65 percent. Trump is viewed favorably by 50 percent, a four-point
drop since the prior poll and the lowest of the top four candidates.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Rubio are in the low 70s.
The
crowded Republican field appears to be working against Cruz. If the race
for the nomination eventually became a two-person race between Trump
and Cruz, 53 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers would pick Cruz,
while 35 percent would go with Trump.
"There's an appreciation for
Cruz even among people who are voting in a different way," said Selzer,
who is widely considered the state's top pollster. "For Trump, he might
be able to win, in part because the field is as big as it is."
In
fourth place is Carson, who is backed by 10 percent of likely
Republican caucus-goers, followed by U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky
at 5 percent. No other candidate recorded above 3 percent.
At the
time of his departure from the race in September, Wisconsin Governor
Scott Walker called on other candidates to also drop out, so that an
establishment candidate could emerge with enough support to challenge
Trump. Yet the combined support of candidates in that lane—Rubio, former
Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Ohio Governor John Kasich and New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie—is still less than Trump or Cruz.
Support
for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate,
remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the
survey, his support dropped the last two days.
Supporters of Trump
are the most decided among the top three candidates, with 71 percent
saying their mind is made up, compared to 61 percent for Cruz and 47
percent for Rubio. Trump also leads with most demographic groups
measured by the poll, including those without college degrees, moderates
and Catholics.
The poll's findings suggest Trump is inspiring new
interest in the Republican caucuses: 40 percent of those in the survey
say they'll be attending for the first time, the highest number recorded
by the survey this election cycle. The last Iowa Poll before the 2012
caucuses showed 27 percent first-time caucus-goers.
Nearly
one-third of Cruz’s supporters say they’d be attending for the first
time, compared to half of Trump's supporters who say they'll be going
for the first time, suggesting he has a greater challenge in turning out
his supporters because veteran caucus-goers tend to be more reliable.
Cruz's
drop from an Iowa Poll in early December—when he led the field at 31
percent—reflects a falloff in support across multiple demographic
groups, including people who define themselves primarily as evangelical
conservatives, where his backing dropped 12 percentage points. His
support among the youngest and oldest also dropped and he lost 14 points
in the Third Congressional District that includes parts of central and
southwest Iowa, including the state capitol of Des Moines....
On candidate traits tested, Trump won on
almost every question. He beats Cruz on being
most feared by U.S.
enemies (50 percent to 21 percent),
potential to bring about needed
change (37 percent to 21 percent),
being a strong leader (32 percent to
23 percent),
prospects for winning a general election (35 percent to 24
percent) and
keeping "your family safest" (28 percent to 24 percent).
Cruz
beats Trump on having the "greatest depth of knowledge and experience"
(26 percent to 17 percent), as well as being respected by leaders of
friendly countries (20 percent to 16 percent).
Two dramatic moves
in the final weeks of the Iowa race appeared to make little difference. A
plurality—46 percent—say they didn't care that Trump skipped the debate
in Des Moines this week, while Iowa Governor Terry Branstad’s plea to
defeat Cruz failed to sway 77 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers....
With former New York Mayor
Michael Bloomberg considering an independent presidential bid, the poll
tested his favorability ratings among likely Republican and Democratic
caucus-goers.
The findings highlight some of the hurdles facing
Bloomberg should he decide to enter the race. The former mayor isn't
well known in the state among the most motivated voters in both parties,
with 41 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers and 57 percent of
likely Democratic caucus-goers not knowing him well enough to share an
opinion.
For those who do have an opinion, 50 percent of
Republican caucus-goers have an unfavorable view, versus just 9 percent
who hold a favorable opinion. Among those likely to attend the
Democratic caucuses, that split was 26 percent unfavorable to 17 percent
favorable.
Bloomberg was a three-term mayor of New York, twice as
a Republican and finally as an independent, and is the founder and
majority owner of Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News.
The
survey, conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer and Co. of West Des Moines,
Iowa, included 602 likely Republican caucus participants and 602 likely
Democratic caucus participants. It has a margin of error of plus or
minus 4 percentage points."...
==================
"Methodology," Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register Poll: Telephone interviews. (No mention which kind of telephone, ie land line v cell phone)
======
"Jan. 30 (Bloomberg)—The Iowa Poll, conducted January 26-29 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered Iowa voters
who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican
caucuses and 602 registered voters who say they definitely or probably
will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 3,019 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone.
Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to
reflect all active voters in the voter registration list."...
.........................
Saturday, January 30, 2016
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