2/6/14, "Democrats Aim for a Presidential Fervor in ’14 Vote," NY Times, Ashley Parker
"The Democrats’ plan to hold onto their narrow Senate majority goes by the name “Bannock Street project.” It runs through 10 states, includes a $60 million investment, and requires more than 4,000 paid staffers. And the effort will need all of that — and perhaps more — to achieve its goal, which is nothing short of changing the character of the electorate in a midterm cycle.
The
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is preparing its largest and
most data-driven ground game yet, relying on an aggressive combination
of voter registration, get out of the vote, and persuasion efforts.
They
hope to make the 2014 midterm election more closely resemble a
presidential election year, when more traditional Democratic
constituencies — single women, minorities and young voters — turn out to
vote in higher numbers, said Guy Cecil, the committee’s executive
director.
While
the goal is ambitious, Mr. Cecil has some experience. “Bannock Street”
is drawn from the name of the Denver field headquarters for the campaign
of Senator Michael Bennet, Democrat of Colorado, for whom Mr. Cecil was
the chief of staff. Mr. Bennet won in 2010 by generating higher than
forecast turnout.
“We’re
making a fundamentally different choice,” said Mr. Cecil, who laid out
the Democratic Senate strategy in an interview at the committee’s
headquarters. “Yes, we have to be on TV and yes we have to help close
the gap between Democrats and Republicans on the air, but we’re not
willing to sacrifice the turnout operation or the field operation to do
that.”
Even
with new funding and tactical tools, the Democratic Senate campaigns
face considerable challenges. The voting rates of core Democratic
constituencies — African Americans, Hispanics, unmarried women, younger
voters — historically drop off considerably in midterm elections.
According to data from the Voter Participation Center — a nonpartisan
organization dedicated to increasing the share of historically
underrepresented voting groups — the drop-off among these groups between
2008 and 2010 was nearly 21 million, going from roughly 61 million to
40 million.
Moreover,
in many of the states, especially those where the Obama campaign had
little real presence, they are basically starting from scratch. Young
voters, for instance, are highly mobile and often have to be registered
again because they have moved in the past two years. The effort is also
in part reliant on volunteers, and many of the nearly dozen states in
play do not have a strong Democratic volunteer culture.
“The
question is whether the party’s Obama-era volunteer base will replicate
itself for a Mark Pryor or a Mary Landrieu or a Kay Hagan,” said Sasha
Issenberg, author of “The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning
Campaigns,” referring to three vulnerable incumbent Democratic senators.
The
committee is taking lessons from 2010 — when, in the wake of the
Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision that prohibited government
restrictions on political spending by corporations, individuals and
labor unions, it poured the majority of its financial resources into
trying to match Republicans in television ads. And it is using as models
successful 2012 efforts in Montana and North Dakota, two states that
were not presidential battlegrounds but which elected Democratic
senators (Senators Jon Tester and Heidi Heitkamp) through the
committee’s robust field effort that helped increase the turnout."...
[Ed. note: 2012 Montana and North Dakota were among the humiliating and predictable losses for Karl Rove and the Chamber of Commerce. In 2012 Montana, Romney beat Obama by 13.7 points. Chamber supported GOP Senate candidate Denny Rehberg still lost. In North Dakota, Romney beat Obama by 19.6 points. GOP establishment and Chamber supported Senate candidate Rick Berg still lost to a non-incumbent democrat.]
[Ed. note: 2012 Montana and North Dakota were among the humiliating and predictable losses for Karl Rove and the Chamber of Commerce. In 2012 Montana, Romney beat Obama by 13.7 points. Chamber supported GOP Senate candidate Denny Rehberg still lost. In North Dakota, Romney beat Obama by 19.6 points. GOP establishment and Chamber supported Senate candidate Rick Berg still lost to a non-incumbent democrat.]
(continuing): "“Television
is a fundamentally persuasive medium, and by transferring those
resources to targeted mobilization, you see a party whose path to
victory goes through changing the electorate, not through winning over
the opinion of typical off-year voters,” Mr. Issenberg said. “Campaigns
are realizing that the smartest way to win the next vote is by
mobilizing a nonvoter than by trying to win over a voter.”
In
many ways, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s efforts are
simply reflective of a broader shift in electoral politics toward a more
data-reliant and empirical approach: The effectiveness of television
ads — which experts agree reach a point of oversaturation near the end
of campaigns — is difficult to measure, while improved data-modeling and
analytic techniques allow campaigns to more closely target their ideal
voters.
Matt
Lira, the deputy executive director at the National Republican
Senatorial Committee, said that on the Republican side there was a
“holistic obsession” to use existing data and technology to not simply
“reverse engineer” the most recent Obama campaign: “If all we achieve is
catching up to Obama 2012, we’ll be two years behind, so we want to
focus on what does the technology enable us to do in 2014,” he said.
Both
voter registration and mobilization efforts are at the center of the
Democrats’ new strategy. In Georgia, for example, the committee
estimates that there are 572,000 unregistered African-American voters,
and that there are more than 600,000 likely supporters of Michelle Nunn,
the Democratic Senate candidate there, who voted in 2012 but not in
2010. The goal, then, is to register the African-American voters, and to
target the likely Nunn voters to show up to the polls during a midterm
election.
But
black voters who did not register to vote in 2008 or 2012, amid all of
the excitement surrounding the nation’s first black president, could
pose a challenge to register in 2014.
The
Bannock Street project is specifically focused on ten states — Alaska,
Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Michigan,
Montana, and West Virginia — with plans for senior field operatives and
other staff members to be in place by the end of the month.
The
state teams will each be required to each come up with a “strategic
plan,” complete with a budget and data-mapping program. Paul Dunn — the
newly hired national field director at the Democratic Senatorial
Campaign Committee, who also ran the 2010 Bennet field effort — will
travel around the country, subjecting the teams to “murder boards” and
making sure they are in constant communication with the Democratic
committee.
The
committee is also joining with Civis Analytics, a data firm founded by
Dan Wagner, who served as the chief analytics officer on Mr. Obama’s
2012 campaign. Because Civis is privately backed, including by Google’s
Eric Schmidt, the partnership will provide Senate Democrats with
additional troves of data to use to target voters. The committee knows,
for instance, that in Iowa people with German and Scandinavian surnames
are likely to vote slightly differently than those with English and
Irish surnames.
“Your
program will live and die by the strength of the data available to you
on the voter file,” read a memo provided to the field teams.
The
project will also require the state teams to constantly update their
voter files so they can use their resources as efficiently as possible.
“We will be able to go into the 58th precinct of the fifth ward of
Little Rock and see if they’ve gotten a door knock, phone call or piece
of mail, and know what TV they’re watching,” Mr. Cecil said." via Free Rep.
Comment: Nice big ad of smiling face of Mitt Romney on the NY Times website page where this article ran. For the pathetic movie about him. The selling of Mitt Romney as the new darling of the left comes to no better place than the NY Times audience. They had to hold back their love of Romney until he threw the election, after which he went into his new career of bashing conservatives and having the media float the idea of his son possibly running for office to unseat a well loved conservative. Mitt Romney is a coward and a fraud. As Soros said, Romney and Obama are the same person, just have different people around them.
Above is a screen shot captured.
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