Correlation of heavy snowfall to US jobs, purchasing 1950-2013 ranges from -1% to -10% per Rutgers Snow Lab

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2/5/14, "The Impact Of Heavy Snowfall On Jobs: What The Facts Really Say," Zero Hedge

"If you repeat a lie often enough, and if you only speak with confidence and in a calm, cool collected voice, the people will believed you - propaganda 101. Also, if you repeat enough times that the US economy - that $17 trillion juggernaut 0 which as recently as December was fabled to have entered the escape velocity phase and thus was safe from the adverse side effects of the Fed's taper, has hit a brick wall because of snow in the winter, then maybe the people will believe that too. Of course, there are the facts, and as always happens, the facts are diametrically opposed to the propaganda.

Presenting Exhibit A: a scatterplot chart showing the December-February nonfarm payroll growth vs the snow extent anomaly over the same period collated from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. The correlation between the two data sets... drumroll: -10%. In fact, over the entire historical record, there are only three instances when heavy snow coincided with job losses, less than when there was light snowfall. In other words, there is virtually no correlation between the amount of heavy snowfall and concurrent jobs gains, and in reality, there is a modest inverse correlation."... Source: @not_jim_cramer. 

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Snow/temperature/precip. charts via not Jim Cramer, US Dec-Feb, 1950-2012-2013, 1900-2010 US temps, Dec-Feb., lower 48. Real GDP v cold weather, 1948-2009, NCDC, Bloomberg:

1. Economic activity, Winter Snow Cover Extent Anomaly vs. ISM Purchasing Mgrs. Survey 1950-2013, Rutgers Snow Lab, ISM -1% correlation

2.  Temperatures vs Non-farm Payroll, 1950-2012, NOAA, BLS, -22% correlation

3. Cited in above article, Snow Extent vs Non-farm payroll, 1950-2012, Rutgers, BLS,  -10% correlation

4. Precipitation anomaly, Non-farm payroll growth, 1950-2012, NOAA NCDC, BLS, 2% correlation

5. Economic activity vs Winter Temperature Anomaly, 1950-2013, NCDC, ISM purchasing, 5% correlation

6. Real GDP 1948-2009, All quarters, normal quarters, cold quarters (Dec-Feb. lower 48 sts, below 32F), Source, NCDC, Bloomberg (chart at end of this post), via not jim cramer

7. US Winter Temperature Chart (Dec-Feb, lower 48), 1900-2010, NCDC:

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 link for this chart, Bloomberg and NCDC stats.

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Note: Here is the Rutgers Snow lab link. I didn't have time to look for the direct link to Rutgers cited in charts 1 and 3 above.

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2/6/14, "Initial Jobless Claims Flat At 8-Month Average," Zero Hedge



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