Sunday, August 18, 2013

30 yr. peer reviewed study definitively proves CO2 does not cause or precede temperature change on land or sea. 8 well known data sets. "The science" will be denied and ridiculed as it means the end of decades of confiscating trillions of taxpayer dollars not for the planet but for the rich

.
30 year peer reviewed scientific study, Jan. 1980-Dec. 2011, finds in all cases CO2 lags temperatures, never precedes temperature change. Scientists politely say, "The common notion of globally dominant temperature controls exercised by atmospheric CO2 is in need of reassessment."

January 2013, "The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature," Global and Planetary Change, ScienceDirect.com

Ole Humluma, b, Corresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author,Kjell Stordahlc, Jan-Erik Solheimd 

a Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway, b Department of Geology, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), P.O. Box 156, N-9171 Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway, c Telenor Norway, Finance, N-1331 Fornebu, Norway, d Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway


[Green line is global CO2, red line is surface temps., blue line is ocean temps., Jan. 1980-Dec. 2011]

 "Abstract

"Using data series on 

atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011....

In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets

1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 
3) GISS surface air temperature data, 
4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 
5) HadSST2 sea surface data,
6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 
7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 
8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. 

Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature."...

Further from the peer reviewed study: 

Subhead 11 (near end), "Discussion" 


"In general, we find that changes in atmospheric CO2 are lagging behind changes in any of the five different temperature records considered. The typical lag is 9.5–12 months for surface temperatures and about 9 months for lower troposphere temperatures, suggesting a temperature sequence of events from the surface to the lower troposphere.

As cause always must precede effect, this observation demonstrates that modern changes in temperatures are generally not induced by changes in atmospheric CO2. Indeed, the sequence of events is seen to be the opposite: 

As the theoretical initial temperature effect of changes in atmospheric CO2 must materialize first in the troposphere, and then subsequently at the planet surface (land and ocean), our diagrams 2–8 reveal that the common notion of globally dominant temperature controls exercised by atmospheric CO2 is in need of reassessment. Empirical observations indicate that changes in temperature generally are driving changes in atmospheric CO2, and not the other way around....

(parag. 7): Thus, the simplest explanation of observed changes in DIFF12 for atmospheric CO2 is that they are induced by changes in temperature, as illustrated by Fig. 2, Fig. 3, Fig. 4, Fig. 5, Fig. 6, Fig. 7, Fig. 8, Fig. 9 and Fig. 10. Consequently, a substantial part of the atmospheric increase of CO2 since January 1980 can be explained by associated changes in temperature, and presumably especially changes in ocean temperatures (Toggweiler, 1999, Monnin et al., 2001 and Goldberg, 2008), as this is where we find both the strongest correlation to changes in CO2 (Fig. 4, Fig. 6 and Fig. 8), and the longest time lag."...
.
[Volcanic ash isn't the cause of rising CO2 (Jan. 1980-Dec. 2011) either:]
.
probably an effect of ocean cooling induced from cloud effects.

(parag. 9): "Summing up, monthly data since January 1980 on atmospheric CO2 and sea and air temperatures unambiguously demonstrate the overall global temperature change sequence of events to be 

1) ocean surface, 2) surface air, 3) lower troposphere, and 

with changes in atmospheric CO2 always lagging behind changes in any of these different temperature records....
.
(Subhead) 12. Conclusions

There exist a clear phase relationship between changes of atmospheric CO2 and the different global temperature records, whether representing sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, or lower troposphere temperature, with changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2 always lagging behind corresponding changes in temperature.

(1) The overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere.
(2) Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature.  
(3) Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5–10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.
(4) Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature. 
(5) Changes in ocean temperatures appear to explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980. 
 (7) On the time scale investigated, the overriding effect of large volcanic eruptions appears to be a reduction of atmospheric CO2, presumably due to the dominance of associated cooling effects from clouds associated with volcanic gases/aerosols and volcanic debris.

(8) Since at least 1980 changes in global temperature, and presumably especially southern ocean temperature, appear to represent a major control on changes in atmospheric CO2."...
  
==========================


No comments: