"U.S. states have undergone a dramatic political transformation since 2008....The greatest movement away from the Democratic Party came between 2009 and 2010, when the...Democratic advantage fell from 34 to 23."
2/2/12, "More States Move to GOP in 2011," Gallup, Jeffrey M. Jones
"Seventeen states solidly or leaning Republican, up from 10 in 2010"
"Democrats have lost their solid political party affiliation advantage in 18 states since 2008, while Republicans have gained a solid advantage in 6 states. A total of 17 states were either solidly Republican or leaning Republican in their residents' party affiliation in 2011, up from 10 in 2010 and 5 in 2008. Meanwhile, 19 states including the District of Columbia showed a solid or leaning Democratic orientation, down from 23 in 2010 and 36 in 2008. The remaining 15 states were relatively balanced politically, with neither party having a clear advantage....
The findings make it clear that U.S. states have undergone a dramatic political transformation since 2008, the year President Obama was elected....
The greatest movement away from the Democratic Party came between 2009 and 2010, when the number of states with a Democratic advantage fell from 34 to 23.
The greatest movement toward the Republican Party came a year later, between 2010 and 2011, with a net gain of seven GOP states, including
- Indiana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Mississippi,
- Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas.
New Hampshire moved from a leaning Republican to a competitive status in 2011. (The year-by-year classification of each state can be found on page 2 of this article.)...
Gallup classifies 15 states as competitive, with the leading party having no more than a five-point advantage. The most competitive states in 2011 were Arkansas, Virginia, and North Carolina; in these, the parties were separated by less than one point....
While party affiliation is highly correlated with a state's voting patterns in statewide elections, it should be noted that these figures are based on the state's entire adult population, rather than the voting electorate. Differences in turnout by party supporters can give a party a greater or a lesser advantage than the party affiliation data might suggest.
Implications
In the last four years, the political leanings of Americans have increasingly moved toward the Republican Party after shifting decidedly Democratic between 2005 and 2008. In 2008, Democrats had one of the largest advantages in party affiliation they have had in the last 20 years, likely because of the unpopularity of President George W. Bush in the latter years of his presidency. Prior to that, the parties were more evenly balanced. So the movement away from the Democratic Party may just be a return to a more normal state of political affairs from an unusual situation, rather than a rejection of the Democrats per se.
The net result of the movement is that the nation looks to be essentially even in terms of its party loyalties headed into a presidential election year. Clearly, President Obama faces a much less favorable environment as he seeks a second term in office than he did when he was elected president." via Free Republic
.
No comments:
Post a Comment