Friday, June 3, 2011

Unemployment rate is higher when factoring that only 64.2% of Americans are in workforce

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Economists say the fact that only 64.2% are in the work force defies rules of normal economic recovery. Factoring in dropouts, the unemployment rate may be 11.5.

6/2/11, "More job seekers give up, reducing unemployment,' AP. Wiseman

"Where did all the workers go? The labor force — those who have a job or are looking for one — is getting smaller....

By the government's definition, if you quit looking, you're no longer counted as unemployed. And you're no longer part of the labor force.

Since November, the number of Americans counted as employed has grown
  • by 765,000,
to just shy of 139 million....

But the number of Americans counted as unemployed has shrunk by much more — almost 1.3 million — during this time. That means the
  • labor force has dropped by 529,000 workers.
The percentage of adults in the labor force is a figure that economists call the participation rate. It is 64.2 percent, the smallest since 1984. And that's become a mystery to economists. Normally after a recession, an improving economy lures job seekers back into the labor market. This time, many are staying on the sidelines.

Their decision not to seek work means the drop in unemployment from 9.8 percent in November to 9 percent in April
  • isn't as good as it looks.
If the 529,000 missing workers had been out scavenging for a job without success, the unemployment rate would have been 9.3 percent in April, not the reported rate of 9 percent. And if the participation rate were as high as it was when the recession began, 66 percent, in December 2007, the unemployment rate could have been
  • as high as 11.5 percent.

A majority of the 42 economists in the latest Associated Press quarterly economic survey said they expect the labor force participation rate to start growing consistently before the year ends. Twelve don't expect it to happen until next year at the earliest. Five think it never will.

It's certainly not happening yet. The labor force grew by just 15,000 in April from March — not even enough to keep up with population growth.

The share of men 20 and older in the labor force peaked long ago, at 89 percent in 1952. It's been falling ever since and is now under 74 percent....

Some who have left the job market are getting by on government checks, particularly Social Security's program for the disabled More than 8.3 million Americans were on Social Security disability last month, up 1.2 million, or 17 percent, from the end of 2007.

The recipients include people who lost jobs that had allowed them to work despite disabilities and who can't find new employers to accommodate them. ...

The CBO notes that more women with high-income husbands and those with young children have been staying out of the job market."...

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Dropouts often experience a reduced standard of living. Oligarchs think this is how it should be for the proletariat:

6/2/11, "Obama solicitor general: If you don't like mandate, earn less money," Washington Examiner, Philip Klein



via Instapundit

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