Himalayan water terror called off, Nature Geoscience peer reviewed study shows predictions to date were scientifically flawed. Plentiful water will flow into the region til at least 2050

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8/5/13, "Warmist Retreat: Water shortage alarm from Himalayan melt called off," Junk Science

E&E reports:

"One of the big unknowns of climate change predictions — and one that has led to considerable contention — lies in knowing the future of water runoff from the Himalayas. The snow-and ice-rich region supplies water for billions of people in Asia and is sometimes referred to as the Earth’s “Third Pole.”

For years, scientists struggled to understand how precipitation will change in these mountains (ClimateWire, Oct. 24, 2011). They have also had difficulty determining how much glacier melt from the mountains contributes to water supply....

A study out yesterday in Nature Geoscience
by Walter Immerzeel, a physical geographer at Utrecht University, suggests that, in at least two major Himalayan watersheds, river flows and runoff should rise until 2100." (E&E is subscription)

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Abstract from Nature Geoscience:

8/4/13, "Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds," Nature Geoscience, W. W. Immerzeel, F. Pellicciotti &; M. F. P. Bierkens

"Assessments of future changes and their associated hydrological impacts are scarce, oversimplify glacier dynamics or include a limited number of climate models^{6, 7, 8, 9}. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a high-resolution glacio-hydrological model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change on two climatically contrasting watersheds in the Greater Himalaya, the Baltoro and Langtang watersheds that drain into the Indus and Ganges rivers, respectively. We show that the largest uncertainty in future runoff is a result of variations in projected precipitation between climate models. In both watersheds, strong, but highly variable, increases in future runoff are projected and, despite the different characteristics of the watersheds, their responses are surprisingly similar. In both cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff is on a rising limb at least until 2050. In combination with a positive change in precipitation, water availability during this century is not likely to decline. We conclude that river basins that depend on monsoon rains and glacier melt will continue to sustain the increasing water demands expected in these areas¹⁰.


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