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Poll dates of Levada Center poll in Russia, April 21-27, 2022...10/1/2022, “Tobin Harshaw: “As you note in an article you co-authored, hopes that Russians would oppose the war have been dashed. Why?”” Bloomberg, “How Does Putin Stay So Popular While Losing the War in Ukraine?”…image via Bloomberg
“ANO “Levada-Center” is included by the Ministry of Justice in the register of non-profit organizations performing the functions of a foreign agent.” (end of page)
to take part in telephone surveys:
is there a difference in the reachability of potential respondents
depending on their gender, age, education, size of population? the
place where they live.
In addition, the task was to test
that respondents who did not support the country’s leadership,
in the current conditions,
more often refuse to participate in surveys,
that those who agreed to take part again
give more positive assessments of ongoing events
than participants in monthly
surveys. [These hypotheses proved false.]
The main results of the experiment:…
………………
In following five examples, poll results were the opposite of hopes or assumptions:
…………………….
[One] “The share of those who declare
in Vladimir Putin (+16%) [up 16% from last survey]
and want to see him in the presidency after 2024
(+14%) [up 14% from last survey]
Respondents who agreed to take part in the re-survey were
asked to answer several questions about the current situation,
including a question about trust in Vladimir Putin and
support for his new term.”…
………………………………………….
[Two]: “Political preferences:…
that respondents who previously did not support
may now more often refuse to participate in the survey.
The assumption
that respondents who were previously opposed
…more often refuse to participate in polls,
The rejection rate in both groups (who supported and who
did not support the president in 2021)
is about the same level….
Respondents agree to re-participate in the survey,
regardless of how they previously answered the question
about support for the authorities….
We used questions from
previous measurements on
attitudes towards Vladimir Putin’s presidency after 2024
and on trust in the president.”
………………………………………..
[Three]: “The assumption
that people who are ready to re-participate in telephone surveys
generally give more positive assessments of ongoing events
and speak more freely about their attitude to politics.”…
………………………………………….
[Four]. “The experiment did not confirm
that respondents who do not approve
of the activities of the
country’s leadership
are more likely to refuse to participate
in the survey.”…
………………………………………..
[Five]: Telephone vs in person responses “generally similar:“
In person Levada surveys are “conducted at the respondent’s
home by the method of personal interview.”]
that people who repeatedly participate in telephone surveys
assess events more positively…
[Additionally,] estimates of the respondents of the
are generally similar to the answers of the participants in the…
………………………………………..
Additional 3 items of general interest from poll:
…………………………………
One: Men and women agree/refuse interviews at same rate:
“Socio-demographic characteristics of respondents and
non-participants:
The results of the experiment showed that the proportion of
successful interviews (achievability level) among men and
women is approximately the same.”…
………………………………
Two: Education:
“As a rule, people with higher education
are much more likely to take part in telephone surveys (if this
feature is not controlled in a special way with the help of quotas).
In the experimental survey, the proportion of successful
interviews among participants with higher education was
also higher than among participants without higher education.
This happened because respondents
without higher education
answered the phone much less frequently.
At the same time, the level of refusals among respondents
with different levels of education turned out to be
approximately the same (the only exception was Moscow:
Muscovites with higher education more often agreed to take part
in the survey). As a result, the largest share of successful
interviews was among Muscovites with higher education,
and the smallest
among rural residents
without higher education….
Among those who took part in the survey,
compared with the sample, there are
more respondents with higher education (as noted earlier,
they answered the phone more often), and more Muscovites –
due to the fact that Muscovites with higher education answered
the phone more often than others,
and refused less often.”…
…………………………………………..
Three: Opinion of Pres. Putin wasn’t predictive either way
of those who agreed to re-survey:
“In addition, those who agreed to take part in the re-survey
did not practically differ from each other
in terms of indicators of support for the president.”…
……………………………………………………
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