Map from AP via NY Times, 11/9/2016 article below:
Nov. 9, 2016, "Donald Trump’s Victory Was Built on Unique Coalition of White Voters," NY Times,
"Donald Trump's America flowered through the old union strongholds of the Midwest, along rivers and rail lines that once moved coal from southern Ohio and the hollows of West Virginia to the smelters of Pennsylvania.
It
flowed south along the Mississippi River, through the rural Iowa
counties that gave Barack Obama more votes than any Democrat in decades,
and to the Northeast, through a corner of Connecticut and deep into
Maine."...
[Ed. note: 6.7 to 9.2 million Obama voters became Trump voters, "far more than enough to provide Trump his electoral College victory."..."The biggest common denominator among Obama-Trump voters is a view that the political system is corrupt and doesn’t work for people like them."... 6/8/17, "The Democratic Party Is in Worse Shape Than You Thought," NY Times, Thomas B. Edsall]
[Ed. note: 6.7 to 9.2 million Obama voters became Trump voters, "far more than enough to provide Trump his electoral College victory."..."The biggest common denominator among Obama-Trump voters is a view that the political system is corrupt and doesn’t work for people like them."... 6/8/17, "The Democratic Party Is in Worse Shape Than You Thought," NY Times, Thomas B. Edsall]
(continuing): "And
it extended through the suburbs of Cleveland and Minneapolis, of
Manchester, N.H., and the sprawl north of Tampa, Fla., where
middle-class white voters chose Mr. Trump over Hillary Clinton.
One
of the biggest upsets in American political history was built on a
coalition of white voters unlike that of any other previous Republican
candidate, according to election results and interviews with voters and
demographic experts.
Mr. Trump’s coalition comprised not just staunchly conservative Republicans in the South and West. They were joined by millions of voters in the onetime heartlands of 20th-century liberal populism — the Upper and Lower Midwest — where white Americans without a college degree voted decisively to reject the more diverse, educated and cosmopolitan Democratic Party of the 21st century, making Republicans the country’s dominant political party at every level of government.
Mr. Trump’s coalition comprised not just staunchly conservative Republicans in the South and West. They were joined by millions of voters in the onetime heartlands of 20th-century liberal populism — the Upper and Lower Midwest — where white Americans without a college degree voted decisively to reject the more diverse, educated and cosmopolitan Democratic Party of the 21st century, making Republicans the country’s dominant political party at every level of government.
Mr.
Trump spoke to their aspirations and fears more directly than any
Republican candidate in decades, attacking illegal immigrants and
Muslims and promising early Wednesday to return “the forgotten men and
women of our country” to the symbolic and political forefront of
American life. He electrified the country’s white majority and mustered
its full strength against long-term demographic decay."...
[Ed. note: Rushing the "decay" of these voters was a racist mistake. "Non-college white voters" aren't exactly a fringe group:
Maps above from Dec. 2017, "Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation," Democracy Fund Voter Study Group]
(continuing): "“A lot of stuff he’s talking about is just God-given common sense, which I think both parties have lost,” said Tom Kirkpatrick, 51, a Trump supporter who used to work in an industrial laundry plant and is now on disability. He stood near the Florida State Capitol on Tuesday, holding an American flag. “Let’s put him in. And if he doesn’t do what he says, I’ll help you vote him out.”
[Ed. note: Rushing the "decay" of these voters was a racist mistake. "Non-college white voters" aren't exactly a fringe group:
Maps above from Dec. 2017, "Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation," Democracy Fund Voter Study Group]
(continuing): "“A lot of stuff he’s talking about is just God-given common sense, which I think both parties have lost,” said Tom Kirkpatrick, 51, a Trump supporter who used to work in an industrial laundry plant and is now on disability. He stood near the Florida State Capitol on Tuesday, holding an American flag. “Let’s put him in. And if he doesn’t do what he says, I’ll help you vote him out.”
But
Mr. Trump also won over millions of voters who had once flocked to
President Obama’s promise of hope and change, and who on Tuesday saw in
Mr. Trump their best chance to dampen the most painful blows of
globalization and trade, to fight special interests, and to be heard and
protected. Twelve percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters approved of Mr.
Obama, according to the exit polls.
Mrs. Clinton won by a greater margin than Mr. Obama among affluent whites, particularly those living in the Democratic Party’s prosperous coastal strongholds: Washington and Boston, Seattle and New York. In Manhattan, where Mr. Trump lives and works — and where his fellow citizens mocked and jeered him as he voted on Tuesday — Mrs. Clinton won by a record margin, amassing 87 percent of the vote to Mr. Trump’s 10 percent.
Around the country, she won a majority of voters over all, harvesting the country’s growing and densely packed big cities and a plurality of the suburbs.
Mrs. Clinton won by a greater margin than Mr. Obama among affluent whites, particularly those living in the Democratic Party’s prosperous coastal strongholds: Washington and Boston, Seattle and New York. In Manhattan, where Mr. Trump lives and works — and where his fellow citizens mocked and jeered him as he voted on Tuesday — Mrs. Clinton won by a record margin, amassing 87 percent of the vote to Mr. Trump’s 10 percent.
Around the country, she won a majority of voters over all, harvesting the country’s growing and densely packed big cities and a plurality of the suburbs.
But
Mr. Trump won low-income white voters to the Republican ticket,
reversing a partisan divide along class lines that is as old as the
Democratic and Republican Parties — a replay of the “Brexit” vote in
June, when the old bastions of England’s Labor-left voted decisively to
leave the European Union. His breakthrough among white working-class
voters in the North not only erased the Democratic advantage but
reversed it, giving him a victory in the Electoral College while he lost
the national popular vote.
Most
strikingly, Mr. Trump won his biggest margins among middle-income white
voters, according to exit polls, a revolt not only of the white working
class but of the country’s vast white middle class. He did better than
past Republicans in the sprawling suburbs along Florida’s central
coasts, overwhelming Mrs. Clinton’s gains among Hispanic voters. He held
down Mrs. Clinton’s margins in the Philadelphia suburbs, defying
expectations that Mrs. Clinton would outperform Mr. Obama by a wide
margin.
Magnified
by the constitutional design of the Electoral College, and aided by
Republican-led efforts to dampen black and Latino voting in states like
North Carolina [no link provided for this claim], Mr. Trump’s America proved the larger on Election Day.
It smashed through the Democrats’ supposed electoral “blue wall” — the
18 states carried by Democrats in every election since 1992, such as
Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus the diverse and well-educated parts of
the country that Mr. Obama attracted in his two races, like New Mexico,
Nevada, Virginia and Colorado.
Starting
Wednesday, you could walk from the Vermont border through Appalachian
coal country to the outskirts of St. Louis without crossing a county Mr.
Trump did not win decisively. You could head south through rural and
suburban Georgia all the way to South Florida, or northwest through the
Upper Midwest, or make a beeline for the West Coast, skirting only the
rising Democratic communities of Colorado and the booming multicultural
sprawl of Las Vegas before finally reaching Mrs. Clinton’s part of the
country.
“It’s
not that he was the most polished of politicians,” said Justin
Channell, 36, of Brewer, Me., who works at a health insurance company.
“I liked the message of the anti-establishment, that corruption in D.C.
is so prevalent.”
Mrs.
Clinton won the America of big, racially diverse cities and centers of
the new economy, from Silicon Valley to the Silicon Slopes of Utah,
where many traditionally Republican voters rejected Mr. Trump. But
lining up for Mr. Trump was a parallel urban America of smaller cities —
places like Scranton, Pa.; Youngstown, Ohio; and Dubuque, Iowa — that
boomed during the industrial era, and are still connected by the
arteries of the old American economy.
She
had hoped for a surge of voting by Latinos, immigrants and
African-Americans, a manifestation of the rising American electorate
long predicted by liberal strategists and feared by the Republican elite
in Washington."...
[Ed. note: As noted above, this was wishful thinking. "Non-college white voters" aren't exactly a fringe group:
Maps above from Dec. 2017, "Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation," Democracy Fund Voter Study Group]
(continuing): "But exit polls suggest that Mr. Trump — despite his attacks on immigrants, Muslims and Mexicans, and his clumsy invocation of black neighborhoods mired in chaos and decay — did not fare worse among the African-American and Latino voters who showed up to the polls than Mitt Romney did four years ago."...
[Source: "Trump Did Better With Blacks, Hispanics Than Romney in '12: Exit" ...https://www.nbcnews.com/.../trump-did better-blacks-hispanics-romney-12-exit-polls-...Nov 9, 2016-Donald Trump performed stronger among black and Hispanic voters than Mitt Romney did as the Republican nominee in 2012, according to NBC Exit Polls. Tuesday's exit poll results have not yet been finalized but so far they show Trump outmatching Romney by two points in each voting bloc."]
(continuing): "In Miami-Dade County, where Mr. Trump had more room to lose ground among Hispanic voters than anywhere else in the country, Mrs. Clinton inched up to only 64 percent from Mr. Obama’s 62 percent of the Hispanic vote. Turnout dropped considerably in black communities across the country, from the rural South to Cleveland, Milwaukee and Detroit.
By Wednesday, the notion of a Democratic electoral map advantage bolstered by rising Hispanic power seemed distant. Even if Mrs. Clinton had won Florida, Mr. Trump would have powered to victory through the new Republican heartland, in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where Hispanic voters represent just a fraction of the electorate.
Nor was the growing Hispanic vote — and Mrs. Clinton’s strength among well-educated voters — enough to pull her especially close in either Arizona or Texas, the only two heavily Hispanic states that could have plausibly joined Florida to put her over the top.
Even where Democratic-leaning Hispanics are growing as a force, Mr. Trump’s supporters were waiting on Tuesday.
Anthony Brdar, 42, stood in front of his West Miami polling station, holding a handmade “Vote Trump” sign, and waved a T-shirt of Mr. Obama’s face made to look like the Joker. It called him a tyrant. An out-of-work lawyer who lives in a heavily Hispanic neighborhood in Miami, Mr. Brdar said he had never felt so compelled to vote.
“I feel like our country is on the verge of becoming a third world country,” he said. “Our children are not going to have a future. We are not going to have a future.”"
[Ed. note: As noted above, this was wishful thinking. "Non-college white voters" aren't exactly a fringe group:
Maps above from Dec. 2017, "Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation," Democracy Fund Voter Study Group]
(continuing): "But exit polls suggest that Mr. Trump — despite his attacks on immigrants, Muslims and Mexicans, and his clumsy invocation of black neighborhoods mired in chaos and decay — did not fare worse among the African-American and Latino voters who showed up to the polls than Mitt Romney did four years ago."...
[Source: "Trump Did Better With Blacks, Hispanics Than Romney in '12: Exit" ...https://www.nbcnews.com/.../trump-did better-blacks-hispanics-romney-12-exit-polls-...Nov 9, 2016-Donald Trump performed stronger among black and Hispanic voters than Mitt Romney did as the Republican nominee in 2012, according to NBC Exit Polls. Tuesday's exit poll results have not yet been finalized but so far they show Trump outmatching Romney by two points in each voting bloc."]
(continuing): "In Miami-Dade County, where Mr. Trump had more room to lose ground among Hispanic voters than anywhere else in the country, Mrs. Clinton inched up to only 64 percent from Mr. Obama’s 62 percent of the Hispanic vote. Turnout dropped considerably in black communities across the country, from the rural South to Cleveland, Milwaukee and Detroit.
By Wednesday, the notion of a Democratic electoral map advantage bolstered by rising Hispanic power seemed distant. Even if Mrs. Clinton had won Florida, Mr. Trump would have powered to victory through the new Republican heartland, in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where Hispanic voters represent just a fraction of the electorate.
Nor was the growing Hispanic vote — and Mrs. Clinton’s strength among well-educated voters — enough to pull her especially close in either Arizona or Texas, the only two heavily Hispanic states that could have plausibly joined Florida to put her over the top.
Even where Democratic-leaning Hispanics are growing as a force, Mr. Trump’s supporters were waiting on Tuesday.
Anthony Brdar, 42, stood in front of his West Miami polling station, holding a handmade “Vote Trump” sign, and waved a T-shirt of Mr. Obama’s face made to look like the Joker. It called him a tyrant. An out-of-work lawyer who lives in a heavily Hispanic neighborhood in Miami, Mr. Brdar said he had never felt so compelled to vote.
“I feel like our country is on the verge of becoming a third world country,” he said. “Our children are not going to have a future. We are not going to have a future.”"
"A version of this article appears in print on November 10, 2016, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: White Voters in Broad Bloc Shaped Upset."
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https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/politics/donald-trump-voters.html
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