Monday, July 25, 2016

Trump takes lead in CNN ORC national poll, up 6 points, leads Hillary 44 to 39, July 22-24, 2016. Trump has huge lead among independents, 46 to 28 over Hillary, also holds double digit leads in handling the economy and terrorism. 68% say Hillary not trustworthy-CNN

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Trump 44
Hillary 39
Johnson 9
Stein 3 (p. 3)
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Among Independents

Trump 46
Hillary 28
Johnson 15
Stein 4 (p. 23)

July 22-24, 2016 national poll of 882 registered voters, error margin 3.5%. 60% land line, 40% cell phone. Link to poll.

7/25/16, "Donald Trump bounces into the lead," CNN, Jennifer Agiesta

"Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups....
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The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.[p. 23]...
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Beyond boosting his overall support, Trump's favorability rating is also on the rise (46% of registered voters say they have a positive view, up from 39% pre-convention), while his advantage over Clinton on handling top issues climbs. He now holds double-digit margins over Clinton as more trusted on the economy and terrorism. Trump also cut into Clinton's edge on managing foreign policy (50% said they trusted her more, down from 57% pre-convention).
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The convention also helped Trump make strides in his personal image. A majority (52%) now say Trump is running for president for the good of the country rather than personal gain, just 44% say the same about Clinton. He's increased the share who call him honest and trustworthy (from 38% to 43%), and who would be proud to have him as president (from 32% to 39%). And nearly half now say he's in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (46% say so, 37% did before the convention).
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Despite Democratic criticism of the Republican convention's message as divisive, the percentage who say Trump will unite the country rather than divide it has increased to 42%, compared with 34% pre-convention.
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Clinton's ratings on these same measures took a hit, though in most cases her drop-off was not quite as large as Trump's gain. Perhaps most troubling for the Clinton supporters gathering in Philadelphia this week: 68% now say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, her worst rating on that measure in CNN/ORC polling....
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Two prominent convention speakers saw their stock rise post-convention as well. Favorability ratings for Trump's wife, Melania, climbed from 27% pre-convention to 43% post-convention, despite news that her Monday night speech contained passages lifted from Michelle Obama's 2008 Democratic convention speech. Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence, whose Wednesday speaking slot was largely overshadowed following Ted Cruz's defiant stand on the convention stage, also bolstered the electorate's impression of him, landing at a 39% favorable rating overall, up from 26% pre-convention.

Cruz's move, however, appears to have backfired. While 60% of Republican voters had a positive impression of the former presidential candidate before the convention, just 33% have one now....
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The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone July 22-24 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. Results for the sample of 882 registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points." Link to poll.
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