June 2013 Chicago area manufacturing falls unexpectedly

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 6/28/13, "Chicago PMI cools in June to below-forecast level," Marketwatch

"Growth in Chicago-area manufacturing decelerated in June, as the Chicago business barometer fell to a 51.6 reading from 58.7 in May. That's the largest monthly drop in over four years, though economists had noted that May's reading was unusually strong. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 55.0 reading."

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6/28/13, "Business Activity Cooled More Than Forecast in June," moneynews.com

"Business activity in the U.S. cooled more than projected in June, a regional report showed, as fiscal constraints and stagnant export markets buffeted manufacturers.

The MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer dropped to 51.6 this month from 58.7 in May, which was the highest in more than a year. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The median forecast of 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 55.

The Chicago index has been out of synch with other regional factory reports, surging in May when others pointed to a slump, and dropping this month as measures from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia point to a rebound. Manufacturing, which makes up about 12 percent of the economy, might be feeling the effects of federal government spending cuts that went into effect in March....

Economists’ forecasts for the Chicago group’s gauge ranged from 51.5 to 58.5."

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6/28/13, "Chicago PMI Plummets By Most In Over 4 Years; Weather Blamed," Zero Hedge

"A devastating 49.0 in April, a surge to 58.7 in May, and then a crash right back to 51.6 in June, far below the expectation of a 55.0, and just above the lowest economist forecast of 51.5. This was the biggest monthly crash in over 4 years. What's another name for this hilarious data series? Why the Baffle with BS Index of course, or Chicago PMI for short. What many saw as definitive proof of an industrial rennaissance in the May number (which only led to a huge ISM disappointment), will mean the economy stasis continues which should at least be good for the market. And since Baffle with BS must continue, look for the Mfg ISM, for which Chicago is a leading indicator, on Monday to be a solid beat. As for the PMI, fear not: it's the weather's fault."...


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