Saturday, January 12, 2013

Analysts slash US 4Q 2012 GDP estimates after unexpectedly wide Nov. trade deficit-Reuters

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1/11/13, "Economists Slash GDP Forecasts After Wider Trade Deficit: 'This Is Not Good News for Growth'," Reuters, via moneynews.com

"The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in November due to a surge in imports, pointing to a sharp slowdown in economic growth during the last three months of 2012....
 
America's trade deficit widened 16 percent in November to $48.7 billion, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

Analysts were expecting the deficit to shrink to $41.3 billion, and the report led a host of economists to trim their estimates of economic growth in the fourth quarter.

"This is not good news for the fourth-quarter GDP growth," said Peter Cardillo, an economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.

When a country imports more than it exports, cash is sucked out of its economy, subtracting from gross domestic product.

The economy grew at an above-trend 3.1 percent pace in the third quarter.

JPMorgan cut its forecast for fourth quarter GDP growth to a 0.8 percent annual rate from 1.5 percent


Morgan Stanley analysts cut their estimate to 0.7 percent from 1.5 percent. Barclays analysts cut their estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 1.3 percent from 2.0 percent.

The trade deficit was the widest since April. Imports surged 3.8 percent, the biggest gain in eight months.

Imports of consumer goods rose by $4.6 billion, while imports of petroleum products fell by $870 million....

U.S. stock index futures opened lower and the dollar weakened against the euro....

U.S. manufacturers selling their goods abroad appear to have declining power in pricing as the global economy takes a hit from Europe's debt crisis."



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