Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Congressional Budget Office says unemployment is really 10.0 due to working age people who've dropped out and can't even get a job interview

.
1/31/12, "Latest Congressional Budget Outlook For 2012-2022 Released, Says Real Unemployment Rate Is 10%," Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden

"But probably the most important part is the CBO's discussion on the labor force participation, and the general unemployment rate:

"Participation in the Labor Force. The unemployment rate would be even higher than it is now had participation in the labor force not declined as much as it has over the past few years. The rate of participation in the labor force fell from 66 percent in 2007 to an average of 64 percent in the second half of 2011, an unusually large decline over so short a time. About a third of that decline reflects factors other than the downturn, such as the aging of the baby-boom generation. But even with those factors removed, the estimated decline in that rate during the past four years is larger than has been typical of past downturns, even after accounting for the greater severity of this downturn. Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent. By CBO’s estimates, the rate of labor force participation will fall to slightly above 63 percent by 2017. The dampening effects of the increase in tax rates in 2013 scheduled under current law and additional retirements by baby boomers are projected to more than offset the strengthening effects of growing demand for labor as the economy recovers further."
----------------------------

5/25/11, "Disturbing Job Ads: 'The Unemployed Will Not Be Considered'," Huffington Post

.

No comments: