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“DeSantis leads Trump 44% to 32% among those who identify as “not very strong Republicans” or independents who lean Republican (19% of adults).”...“Trump leads among those who identify as “strong” Republicans” 53%-39% (17% of adults)."…
12/8/22, “Poll: DeSantis surges to 5-point lead over weakened Trump in 2024 primary matchup,” Andrew Romano, Yahoo News
“A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
Trump previously led DeSantis by double-digit margins among
registered voters who describe themselves as
Republicans or Republican-leaning independents.
Meanwhile, DeSantis is ahead by even more–a whopping 11 points–among Americans who say they
voted in a 2016 Republican primary or caucus in their state.
The poll of 1,635 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Dec. 1 to 5, is one of the first to confirm how far and fast Trump’s political stock has fallen in the weeks since he announced his own comeback White House bid just days after his party’s historically poor performance in the 2022 midterm elections. During that period, many conservatives blamed Trump for blowing key pickup opportunities — including this week’s Senate runoff in Georgia — and criticized the former president for hosting avowed antisemites at Mar-a-Lago and calling for the “termination” of the Constitution….
When asked in mid-October who they “would rather see” as the 2024 GOP presidential nominee, 45% of registered voters who are Republicans or Republican leaners said Trump. Thirty-six percent said DeSantis.
Asked now which of the two candidates they would “vote for” if their state’s primary or caucus were held today, the same group says DeSantis by a 47% to 42% margin—a net swing of 14 percentage points in DeSantis’s direction over the span of six eventful weeks.
Likewise, more Republican voters now say they want to see “someone else” (43%) as the GOP nominee instead of Trump (41%) — an 8-point decline for Trump (from 49%) and a 6-point increase for someone else (from 37%) since mid-October.
Yahoo News and YouGov did not create a formal “likely voter” model for this poll. Instead, respondents were asked if they voted in their state’s 2016 Republican primary or caucus — one of several possible predictors of future voting behavior.
Among the 24% of U.S. adults who say they cast a GOP primary or caucus vote in 2016, DeSantis already claims majority support (51%) in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, while Trump lags far behind (40%)….
The former president leads the Florida governor 53% to 39% among those who identify as “strong” Republicans (17% of adults)….
At the same time, however,
“not very strong Republicans” or independents who lean Republican (19% of adults)–
a sign that the composition of the primary electorate may be crucial if the two candidates do wind up duking it out in 2024.
Regardless, the fact that DeSantis has already started to surpass his party’s dominant figure — without even announcing a presidential bid of his own — is an important development.
Even in a more crowded field, the Floridian still performs surprisingly well. When offered a choice of nine potential candidates,
just 35% of Republican voters currently pick Trump —
10 points less than the 45% of GOP primary voters who cast their ballots for him in 2016’s fractured GOP nominating contest.
Nearly as many (33%) choose DeSantis.
Meanwhile, those numbers are just as close among adults who say they are likely to vote in a 2024 Republican primary or caucus: 38% for Trump to 36% for DeSantis. Among those who say they
actually voted in a 2016 Republican primary or caucus in their state, DeSantis is ahead 36% to 34%.
Unlike in 2016–when a succession of Republican candidates split the anti-Trump primary vote, dividing the opposition and enabling Trump to secure the GOP nomination without majority support–there is so far
little indication that any other potential Trump challenger
can compete with DeSantis.
Among all Republican and Republican-leaning voters, former Vice President Mike Pence (5%), former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley (5%), Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (2%), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2%), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (2%), outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (1%) and outgoing Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney (2%) barely register.
[In chart below, only Democrats show increased approval of Trump:]
All of which underscores how good the last month has been for DeSantis, who won reelection on Nov. 8 by 19 percentage points, and how bad it has been for Trump. In mid-June — the last time Yahoo News and YouGov asked the question–Trump’s favorable rating was underwater by 10 points (43% favorable, 53% unfavorable). Today, it is underwater by 15 (40% favorable, 55% unfavorable). That 5-point shift is almost twice the poll’s 2.6% margin of error.
who say they have a “very favorable” opinion of Trump–
a group that shrunk a full 7 percentage points (from 25% to 18%).
Perhaps most worrisome for the former president as he embarks on yet another run for the GOP presidential nomination is that even most Republicans no longer have a “very favorable” opinion of him. In June, a majority (54%) of them did. Now that number is 12 points lower (42%).
Relatedly, most Republicans said in late October that Trump would be a stronger (57%) rather than weaker (19%) presidential candidate in 2024 than he was in 2020. Today, that 38-point gap has collapsed to 13 points, with less than half of Republicans now saying Trump would be stronger (45%) and nearly a third (32%) saying he would be weaker.
Asked who has a “better chance” of winning the 2024 presidential election,
48% of Republican voters say DeSantis,
compared to just 39% for Trump.
This finding suggests that at least some of DeSantis’s growing GOP support may stem from the perception that Trump is likely to lose again in two years’ time.
The poll itself provides some tentative proof of Trump’s weakness in a general election rematch–especially relative to DeSantis.
If the 2024 election were held today, registered voters
would prefer President Biden to Trump by a 45% to 42% margin.
DeSantis, however, is tied with Biden at 44% apiece.”…
……………………………….
“The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,635 U.S. adults interviewed online from Dec. 1 to 5, 2022. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to March 15, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time
(32% Democratic, 27% Republican). [32+27=59. This must mean that 41% of voters polled are unaffiliated and don’t lean toward either party.]
Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.6%.”
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