Friday, April 27, 2012

'Big Miss' US GDP 1Q 2012 even uglier on closer inspection-Zero Hedge

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Also means Q2 growth outlook is worse than it already was.

4/27/12, "Big GDP Miss: 2.2% Vs Expectations Of 2.5%, Composition Even Uglier," Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden

"So much for the +3.0% GDP whisper number. Instead of printing at the expected number of +2.5%, the first preliminary GDP data point (two more revisions pending) came out at 2.2%, a big disappointment for a quarter which had a substantial boost from the weather. And while of the 2.2%, Personal Consumption came in strong - as expected, as it was precisely the factor most impacted by pulling in demand forward courtesy of "April in February", 0.59% of the 2.2% was an increase in inventories, something which was not supposed to happen as it means that the quality of the economic growth in Q1 was far worse than expected. Cementing the ugly composition of Q1 GDP was fixed investment which added just a paltry 0.18% -
  • this is the number which is critical for ongoing cashflow generation and unfortunately,
the very low print means that growth outlook for Q2 is now even worse than before and we expect economists will promptly trim their already bearish predictions for Q2 GDP. Finally, government "consumption" subtracted just 0.6% from the total number, a decrease from the 0.84% in Q4, which means that once again the government is starting to become less of a detractor to growth - a dagger in the heart to anyone who claims there is "quality" in GDP growth. And the number you have all been waiting for: At March 31,
  • US Debt/GDP was 100.8%."

"Components of GDP by quarter," bar chart

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4/27/12, "Chart Of The Day: Change In Q1 American Debt And GDP," Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden

Public debt added 1Q 2012: $359.1 billion

GDP added 1Q 2012: $142.4

bar chart at link

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