Monday, May 2, 2016

On election eve in Indiana, Trump has double digit lead at 44%, April 28 and 29, 2016 Gravis poll, live interviews, 379 Registered Likely Indiana Republican primary voters

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Trump 44
Cruz 27
Kasich 9

April 28-29, 2016, 379 Registered Likely Indiana Republican primary voters, live phone interviews on landlines and mobile devices, 5% error margin

5/2/16, "Current Indiana Polling," Gravis Marketing

"Trump holds a double-digit lead over Ted Cruz according to a recent Gravis Marketing poll completed by phone surveys from April 28th to the 29th.

Gravis Marketing, one of the leading nonpartisan political research firms based in Winter Springs, Fla., conducted a random survey of 379 likely Republican Primary voters in Indiana. The Indiana poll results has a margin of error of ± 5% at a 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using live telephone calls to landlines and mobile phone numbers of registered voters in Indiana accessible through the Gravis Marketing compiled registered voter database and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.
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The Gravis poll began by asking 379 Republican Primary voters whom 91 percent indicated they were likely to vote in the upcoming primary and six percent stating they have already voted, “Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?” With three candidates remaining on the ballot, front runner Donald Trump received 44 percent support from Hoosier State Republican and Independent voters that took place in the survey. Texas Senator Ted Cruz received 27 percent of the vote while John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio received the support of 9 percent of those surveyed. At the conclusion of data collection, 19 percent indicated they were still ‘uncertain’ as to which GOP candidate they’d select."...
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Image from Gravis Marketing


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Trump +9.3 in Indiana, Real Clear Politics average of six April 2016 polls

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5/2/16, "Indiana Republican Presidential Primary," Real Clear Politics, May 3, 2016 primary







Six polls averaged: Gravis, NBC/WSJ/Marist, ARG, Clout, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News




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1500 rally for Trump at Indiana Theater in Terre Haute, Indiana, 5/1/16

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Above, 5/1/16, Trump rally in Terre Haute: "Donald Trump's campaign slogan was up on the Indiana Theater Marquee leading up to his speech," Tribune-Star, Austen Leake, Terre Haute. Crowd: "A crowd of approximately 1,500 people packed into a theater here in Terre Haute, Indiana."















 
Above, 5/1/16, Trump rally in Terre Haute: "Signed souvenir: Presidential candidate Donald Trump signs a hat for a supporter after his speech at the Indiana Theater on Sunday," Tribune-Star, Garza
















Above, 5/1/16, Trump rally in Terre Haute, Ind.: "Presidential candidate Donald Trump talks about his opponents, both Republican and Democrat, during his speech on Sunday at the Indiana Theater," Tribune-Star, Garza  






















Above, 5/1/16, Trump rally in Terre Haute, Ind.: "AMAZING - INDIANA! LETS WIN on Tuesday, May 3rd! Daniel Scavino twitter















Above, 5/1/16, Trump rally in Terre Haute, Ind.:"Indiana Theatre-PACKED for Donald Trump!  5/3/2016!...," Daniel Scavino twitter
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Crowd: "A crowd of approximately 1,500 people packed into a theater here in Terre Haute, Indiana:"

5/1/16, "Trump ups the ante in Indiana," CNN, Jeremy Diamond

""Indiana is so important and we have to win it," Trump said to a crowd of approximately 1,500 people packed into a theater here in Terre Haute, Indiana. "If we win Indiana, it's over."...

Trump urged Indiana Republicans to put him over the top -- a victory that would solidify Trump's increasingly clear path to winning the GOP nomination on the first ballot of the party's summer convention.


Trump now has a 15-point lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz -- his biggest yet -- according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Sunday."...




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Sunday, May 1, 2016

Weekends are when the Cruz people try to make up for the beatings they absorb from actual voters every Tuesday-Howie Carr, Boston Herald, 5/1/16

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5/1/16, "Carr: Ted Cruz, RINOS still huge losers, Mrs. Carr the biggest winner," Boston Herald, Howie Carr

"So now I have a roommate at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July — my wife.

She was elected yesterday from North Attleboro as a Donald Trump delegate to the national GOP convention. Unfortunately for Dyin’ Ted Cruz, she is not a double agent for him or any other Canadian-born RINOs.

“I got more votes than anybody else!” my spouse bragged to me last evening, and she told me to put her quote into the paper — or else.

Yesterday’s congressional caucuses were yet another sad day for the GOPe here in Massachusetts. Weekends are when the Cruz people try to make up for the beatings they absorb from actual voters every Tuesday. As bad as Tuesdays are for the Cruz cult, Saturdays are usually their time to slither back into the game, mainly because nobody’s paying attention.

But yesterday in Massachusetts, the local RINOs could deliver no more than four or so of the 27 votes on the table to the Calgary comet, Rafael Eduardo Cruz Jr.

Until this week, everything seemed to be falling into place for the Beacon Hill RINOs. Remember, the Baker agenda is rather modest — six-figure state hack jobs for themselves, a few rattlesnakes at the Quabbin and lots of sex offenders in the ladies’ rooms, and that’s about it.

All of yesterday’s caucus locations were picked to assure a minimum turnout of actual voters and a maximum turnout of Cruz’s crew of toothless snake-chuckers. Yea, verily, the howl of holiness was expected to be heard in the Blue Hills yesterday. Tongues were to be spoken, and the gospel according to Pastor Beck — turn to Chapter 11, brethren — was to be preached among the hookworm-afflicted fans of the junior senator from Texas. Put yo’ hands on the radio…

These Cruz RINOs have no shame — their phony-baloney hack jobs are on the line, after all. They claimed my wife hadn’t shown proper ID, even though she had procured a certified letter from the town clerk attesting to her credentials. She was even born in the U.S. — that really bothers the Cruz Kool-Aid drinkers.

In North Attleboro, the preeminent GOP hack family, the Poiriers, were tasked, along with assorted henchmen, with subverting the will of the electorate. This is a congressional district that includes both Fall River and Newton, so it seemed only natural to the Baker clique that the GOP caucuses should be held in…North Attleboro.

The Baker mob pulled similar stunts across the state.

Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito hails from Shrewsbury, so forget about Worcester. The GOPe scheduled the Second District caucus in her hometown. Springfield got the bum’s rush in favor of Ludlow. Boston was bypassed for a town, Braintree, where Charlie has put maybe two-thirds of the local Republican hacks on state-payroll welfare.

State Sen. Vinny deMacedo was charged with kicking butt and taking names in Plymouth. Too bad he doesn’t know anybody from the Cape and Islands.

“Lyin’ Ted sicced his minions on me,” my wife said after she was unsuccessfully challenged.

The fact is, there are more of us than there are of them. Promoting al-fresco baptisms in the local creeks is not a way to build a majority, no matter what the voices in Ted Cruz’s head tell him. So my wife now heads to Cleveland with me. And no, we won’t be ducking any of her fellow delegates in the Cuyahoga River, no matter what his pet serpents tell Rafael et al. to do.

Can somebody shout amen?"

"Listen to Howie 3-7 p.m. every weekday on WRKO AM 680."




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Trump has 69% chance of winning Indiana Republican primary on Tuesday, May 3-538.com

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5/1/16, "Indiana Republican Primary Forecasts," 538.com







"According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning the Indiana primary." projects.538.com

"Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.
 
Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages.

 






The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls. 

For the Indiana Republican primary, we’ve collected eight polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages."...(NBC WSJ Marist, ARG, Clout, YouGov, Fox News, Public Opinion Strategies, IPFW, Bellwether Research and Consulting)


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Anarchist in Burlingame put Trump supporter in near stranglehold to prevent him from attending Trump speech. In Costa Mesa, police horse was injured by rock hurled by an anarchist-AP, KGO, LA Times

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Above, 4/29/16, Image caption: "Protesters hold back a Republican supporter from getting in the Hyatt Regency in Burlingame, Calif., where Trump is set to speak on Friday, April 29, 2016 (KGO-TV)."

Physical violence including near stranglehold of a peaceful citizen by by an individual who appears to be a wrestling champ and who is backed by menacing mobs is anarchy, not protest. It's a complete collapse of government. The government's first duty is to protect its citizens. It doesn't even try.  A "Fight white supremacy" sign in the image might be found at any public event anywhere in the world. Meaning it didn't just "erupt" for an "anti-Trump" protest.

Added, the Costa Mesa riots were organized by the Democrat Party: "The protest was organized by the Democratic Party of Orange County and Orange County Young Democrats. 
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Re: Burlingame:

4/29/16, Anti-Donald Trump protests erupt near Republican convention in Burlingame," AP and KGO TV, Burlingame, Calif.

"Hundreds of anti-Donald Trump protesters crowded the streets near the Hyatt Regency in Burlingame as the presidential candidate arrived for the Republican convention.

A man wearing a Trump campaign "Make America Great Again" red hat was struck while being jostled by a group of shouting protesters.

"It went gangbusters. They attacked me," said Chris Conway, who identified himself as mortgage broker from San Mateo.
...

After Trump took the podium, he described having to take a complicated detour to get into the venue due to the rowdy protesters outside."...

[Ed. note: It wasn't a "complicated detour," there was no "detour." Trump was entirely prevented from proceeding by car. He got out of his car and walked to the venue.














Above, 4/28/16, Trump on foot as he crosses ditch to reach GOP event in Burlingame, Calif. after anarchists blocked his travel there by car. The so-called "rowdy protesters" were anarchists.]

(continuing): ""That was not the easiest entrance I've ever made...it felt like I was crossing the border actually," he said.

Barricades were set up Thursday night around the Hyatt Regency, where organizers were excited that Trump was kicking off the convention. But if it's anything like Southern California's events, it could be a wild weekend."...

[Ed. note: A "wild weekend?" A "wild weekend" is a beach party, not the violent collapse of government.]

(continuing): "About 20 people were arrested by Costa Mesa police Thursday night as Trump protesters and supporters took to the streets outside Orange County Fairgrounds, where the Republican presidential candidate was speaking."...

[Ed. note: Again, not correct. Riots didn't happen "as" protesters and supporters "took to the streets." NBC/AP sold the same thing: "Raucous protesters and supporters of Donald Trump took to the streets...." Only one "side" "took to the streets." If supporters were on the "street" at all, they were trying to get to their car, or were sitting in their car, with anarchists surrounding them, pounding on their car, preventing it from moving: 

"Protesters surround a car at the corner of Fairview Road and Fair Drive on Thursday following a Donald Trump rally at the Orange County fairgrounds. (Scott Smeltzer / Daily Pilot)," LA Times

"Dozens of cars-including those of Trump supporters trying to leave--were stuck in the street as several hundred demonstrators blocked the road, waved Mexican flags and posed for selfies....One Trump supporter had his face bloodied in a scuffle as he tried to drive out of the arena."]

(continuing): "In Burlingame, police have spent a month planning and asked for help from every agency in the county and also state and federal officials."...

[Ed. note: The month of "planning" was obviously worthless.] 

(continuing): "Donald Trump was set to speak around 12:45 p.m....People are coming from all across the state to be at the convention.

"A lot of times in the past the nominees had already been decided by the time we got here so this is a great opportunity to really engage. We've got three candidates to choose from
....Our Republicans in the state are excited to make that decision in June," said Kaitlyn MacGregor, Communications Director California GOP."...

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Added: Police horse in Costa Mesa injured by rock-throwing anarchist:

"A police horse...named Drifter, was injured by a thrown rock, police said."

4/29/16, "17 arrested, man injured as vandalism mars protest outside Trump rally in Costa Mesa," LA Times,



Some of the protesters smashed a police car window and jumped on officers’ vehicles.

“It was a big melee,” according to Costa Mesa police Sgt. Bang Le, who said at least five police vehicles were vandalized. Police said one man was hurt during an altercation on the fairgrounds property. Paramedics took him to a hospital for treatment of a head injury that didn’t appear to be life-threatening,
according to authorities.
At one point, a Costa Mesa officer was hit on the head by a rock thrown by a protester, but police said he was unhurt, thanks to the riot gear and helmet he was wearing.

A police horse ridden by a Huntington Beach officer wasn’t as fortunate, authorities said. The horse, named Drifter, was injured by a thrown rock, police said.

At one point, a group of young men and women started rocking and jumping onto a car near Fairview Road and Fair Drive, an intersection that was eventually shut down. The driver got out and screamed at the group that a child was onboard.

"As police dressed in riot gear tried to control the masses congregating along Fair Drive, near Costa Mesa City Hall and the Police Department headquarters, many people were heard chanting, “Whose streets? Our streets.

The Costa Mesa Police Department said officers arrested 17 people, all on suspicion of failing to disperse. By Friday morning, each arrestee had been released with a written promise to appear in court, Le said.

The crowd dispersed by 11 p.m., about four hours after Trump's rally began, the Sheriff's Department said.

The protest was organized by the Democratic Party of Orange County and Orange County Young Democrats, who consider some comments Trump has made about immigrants and others to be bigoted.

Erik Taylor, executive director of the Democratic Party of Orange County, said Friday that the party “does not condone the violence that took place at the O.C. fairgrounds last night, but we do thank the Democratic Party activists who did come out and protest in a peaceful way.” “Obviously things got out of hand,” he added...

Some demonstrators were draped in Mexican flags....

Some protesters with “Dump Trump” signs put them in horse manure that had been dropped on the ground. 

In the afternoon at the fairgrounds’ Gate 1 off Fair Drive, a line of cars waited to get in, but officials had closed that entrance. Protesters were walking among the cars, waving signs." ...



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4/29/16, "17 Arrested After Demonstrations at Donald Trump Rally Turn Violent," AP and staff via NBC Los Angeles

"The Pacific Amphitheatre was filled to its capacity of about 18,000 and many hundreds more were turned away."...

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Comment: "Demonstrations" didn't "turn violent." The government decided to collapse and allow anarchists to rule the streets for 3 hours.

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Ed. note: Please excuse some text so tiny it's almost illegible. Google dislikes free speech. The links should still work.


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Saturday, April 30, 2016

Tennessee Rep. Jimmy Duncan enthusiastically endorses Donald Trump citing his views on US trade deals: 'We have tremendous leverage on trade we have not used. Donald Trump will do that'-Politico

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4/30/16, "Rep. Jimmy Duncan endorses Donald Trump," Politico, Kristen East

"Donald Trump has notched the endorsement of one the House’s longest serving Republicans.

Rep. Jimmy Duncan (R-Tenn), who has served in Congress since 1988, “enthusiastically” endorsed Trump on Saturday, citing the presidential candidate’s trade rhetoric.

“Every country wants into our markets. We have tremendous leverage on trade we have not used. Donald Trump will do that,” he said in a statement.
 
Duncan is the only Republican currently serving in Congress to have voted against the Iraq War.

Trump, in a statement, said he was glad to have the support of “one of the most fiscally conservative” representatives.

“If more members voted like Rep. Duncan, we wouldn’t be wasting trillions of taxpayer dollars in foreign countries,” he said."

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Added: Rep. Duncan was right to oppose the Iraq War. George Bush joked about not finding WMDs in Iraq.

At media dinner in March 2004, Bush in a slide show for the media did a comedy bit about not finding WMDs in Iraq, looks under furniture, media laughs. Thousands dead and maimed, trillions of dollars wasted, radical Islam and Iran empowered, Christians forced to flee.

3/25/2004, "Bush pokes fun at himself, staff," AP via MSNBC, "Mock slide show featured at dinner."

"President Bush poked fun at his staff, his Democratic challenger and himself Wednesday night at a black-tie dinner where he hobnobbed with the news media

Bush put on a slide show, calling it the “White House Election-Year Album” at the Radio and Television Correspondents’ Association 60th annual dinner, showing himself and his staff in some decidedly unflattering poses.

There was Bush looking under furniture in a fruitless, frustrating search. “Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be somewhere, he said."...

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3/25/2004, "MIA WMDs–For Bush, It’s a Joke," The Nation, David Corn

"At one point, Bush showed a photo of himself looking for something out a window in the Oval Office, and he said, Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be somewhere.

The audience laughed. I grimaced. But that wasn’t the end of it. After a few more slides, there was a shot of Bush looking under furniture in the Oval Office. “Nope,” he said. “No weapons over there.” More laughter. Then another picture of Bush searching in his office: Maybe under here.” Laughter again....

I wondered what the spouse, child or parent of a soldier killed in Iraq would have felt if they had been watching C-SPAN and saw the commander-in-chief mocking the supposed justification for the war that claimed their loved ones....

Yet there was Bush–apparently having a laugh at his own expense, but actually doing so on the graves of thousands. This was a callous and arrogant display....As the audience laughed along, he smiled. The false statements (or lies) that had launched a war had become merely another punchline in the nation’s capital."  






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Indiana Gov. Mike Pence said he "particularly" commends "Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans"-Business Insider, 4/29/16

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4/29/16, "Indiana's governor started off his endorsement of Ted Cruz with lengthy praise of Donald Trump," Business Insider, Allan Smith

"Indiana Gov. Mike Pence opened up his big endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz by praising Donald Trump at length in a radio interview.

He told WIBC in Indianapolis that he "particularly" wanted "to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans."........

Pence also voiced his pleasure with Trump's focus on Carrier, which has announced controversial plans to move many jobs in its Indiana plant to Mexico.
The Indiana governor then announced his endorsement of Cruz. "I really admire the way Ted Cruz has been willing to stand up for taxpayers," he said.

The endorsement of Indiana's chief executive was a significant get for Cruz, who is trailing Trump by an average of more than 6 points in the must-win state.

Pence did say, though, that he'd work "his heart out" to help any of the three GOP candidates — including his neighboring governor, John Kasich of Ohio — should they become the GOP nominee this summer."

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Added: "Pence praises Trump more than he does Cruz" in his endorsement of Cruz:













Jessica Taylor twitter, NPR reporter

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Added: 4/28/16, 12,000 rally for Trump in Evansville, Indiana:














Above, 4/28/16, "A sea of cellphones go up as Donald Trump and Bobby Knight make a quick stop in the overflow room after his speech at the Old National Events Plaza Thursday, April 28, 2016, Mike Lawrence/Courier and Press." "An estimated 12,000 people jammed areas inside and outside Old National Events Plaza." 





















Above, 4/28/16, Trump rally in Evansville, Indiana: "Donald Trump and Bobby Knight" Evansville, Indiana! LETS WIN INDIANA! Dan Scavino twitter
 









  




Above, 4/28/16, Trump rally in Indiana, "Donald J. Trump's Presidential Rally in Indiana today w/ thousands in overflow. Dan Scavino twitter, Trump campaign

4/29/16, "Trump draws huge, faithful crowd during Evansville rally," Evansville Courier and Press, by Thomas B. Langhorne

"Call it frustration with the status quo or perhaps a bedrock belief that America’s position in the world is diminished, but Donald Trump tapped into something during his visit to Evansville Thursday.

An estimated 12,000 people jammed areas inside and outside Old National Events Plaza during Trump’s 58-minute speech in the run-up to Tuesday’s Indiana Republican presidential primary. In the auditorium they murmured excitedly in anticipation of his appearance, exploded when he walked onstage, laughed uproariously at his jokes and cheered lustily-several times -when he called for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

The real estate mogul and reality TV star promised to “knock the hell out of ISIS,” do away with Obamacare, stop unfair trade deals and make Mexico pay for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border. He said he will make America rich again because, “unless we’re rich, we can’t be strong.”


With no other states holding presidential primaries Tuesday and the world’s eyes on Indiana, Trump aims to effectively knock out main GOP presidential rival Ted Cruz with a smashing victory in the state. Coming on the heels of decisive victories in five Northeastern primaries this week, he hopes to establish an unshakable vice grip on the Republican presidential nomination by virtue of the sheer size of his lead in national GOP convention delegates. He campaigned extensively in Indianapolis Wednesday.

We’re going to win on the border,” he said to a crescendo of cheers. “We’re going to win, and we’re going to build a wall and, believe me — believe me — Mexico’s going to pay for the wall.”

By using provisions of the Patriot Act, Trump has said, the U.S. can bring considerable pressure to bear on Mexico to compel that country to pay for the wall. The leverage point is about $24 billion that Trump says is annually transferred from Mexican nationals working in the U.S. back to Mexico. He argues that a majority of that money comes from illegal immigrants, serving as “de facto welfare for poor families in Mexico....

Trump has said allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East would benefit from more vigorous U.S. leadership on the world stage. But on Thursday in Evansville, he said there should be no doubt that America’s economic and foreign policy interests would come first in his administration.

“We’re going to win with great, great trade deals,” Trump said. We’re not going to let the entire world rip us off anymore. And speaking of our military, we’re defending the whole world and they think we’re all a bunch of jerks. From now on, we want to help everybody — but they have to help us ...”
 
The words were drowned out by the cheers.


Trump got critical bench support Thursday from former Indiana University basketball coach Bobby Knight, who hailed him as a great leader on the world stage.


“This man (Trump) has created more jobs and hired more people than any American ever has during his lifetime to date,” Knight said. “He’s done this not just in America, but across the world. And he has a great reputation, a great feeling people get for him.”

Knight called Trump “a man who not only gets things done, but he gets things done in the right way and when something needs to be corrected, he can correct it.”

Trump’s America-first message resonates with Ashlee Mercer, an Evansville resident who joined hundreds of people at Tri-State Aero to see him off as he departed Evansville in his black and gold Boeing 757.

Some of the crowd used cellphones to record Trump and his party’s entrance to the facility in SUVs, staying until his jet ascended in the air at 2:44 p.m. They lined the fences, sat in flatbed trucks, waved American flags or stood in clusters straining for a glimpse of Trump.

Mercer brought her 8-year-old son to the airport. She likes Trump’s candor and willingness to say things that more conventional politicians don’t dare. But there’s more to it than that.

“Drugs coming over from Mexico, our jobs going to Mexico,” Mercer started out.

My husband lost his job to Mexico from Whirlpool,she said. “I have a child that has chronic health conditions and, even now, with the laws with health care, having a child that’s having to go to Cincinnati Riley and have multiple procedures done, our health care is in dire need — and the fact that illegal Mexican aliens get Medicaid, that’s an issue to me. I pay a lot of money for my health care.”

Outsourcing of American jobs to other countries is a symptom of American weakness, Mercer said. She wants a strong leader — a leader who will put America first and won’t be conflicted about it.

I think in the United States of America we worry too much about other countries and less about our own,she said.We worry about the homeless, the people who don’t have food in other countries — when, you know what? There’s plenty of homeless here in Evansville.”

Mercer had one more opinion: Republican Party leaders who are trying to derail Trump’s candidacy are out of touch not only with the GOP rank-and-file, but “with reality.”

Trump’s trip up U.S. 41 from Old National Events Plaza to Tri-State Aero created a little economic activity at Subway sandwich shop next to the facility. Managers Tim Stallings and Marla Groves said Tri-State Aero asked them to create a foot-long tuna-on-wheat sub for someone — maybe Trump himself — on the billionaire businessman’s jet.

“They said it could be for Trump, that’s what they said — you never know. It could be anybody,” Stallings said, glancing at Groves. “She started it, I finished it.”"




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