Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Trump expands lead over Hillary in USC Dornsife LA Times Daybreak Poll, August 30, 2016: Trump 45.3, Hillary 41.9

Trump 45.3
Hillary 41.9

8/31/16, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll

Hillary 2.7 drop 8/26-8/30/16.

Trump 2 point increase 8/26-8/30/16


Reflecting a general trend, Trump closes 12 point gap in Reuters national poll of likely voters through August 29, 2016. Trump now 39.1, Hillary 39.7, virtual tie


Images from Reuters polling, 1397 likely voters, 5 day rolling average through Aug. 29. Trump 39.1, Hillary 39.7

8/30/16, "Reuters: Donald Trump Closes 12-Point Gap with Hillary Clinton, Now Tied," Breitbart News

"Donald Trump closed a 12-point polling gap with Hillary Clinton in five days, leaving them half a percent apart during the next two-day period, according to new polling data from Reuters.
On August 22, Clinton led Trump by 12 points, 44.8 percent to 32.8 percent. By Aug. 27, the two candidates were neck and neck.... 

By Aug. 29, Trump had nudged up again to 39.1 percent, while she was at 39.7 percent. He gained 6.7 points, while she lost 5.1 points during the entire seven-day period.
Twenty percent of the respondents declined to pick either of the two leaders in the poll of 1,397 likely voters, which was concluded Aug .29.

Trump’s support among Republicans climbed from 71 percent up to 78.3 percent. Clinton’s support among Democrats dipped slightly from 81.6 percent to 78.5 percent.

The poll reflects a general trend, in which Trump has managed to close much of the gap that Clinton opened in early August.

In July, Reuters sharply changed how it presented polling data, political strategist Pat Caddell told Breitbart Radio. “It is, beyond doubt, the most outrageous thing,” he declared. Caddell cited two examples to Breitbart News.

“On July 25, they originally reported: Trump 40.3 percent and Clinton 37.2 percent, which was a Trump margin of 2.8,” he said. “They have recalculated that now–which I have never heard of–they changed that data, to be: Clinton 40.9 and Trump 38.4, which is a 2.5 margin for Clinton.”

The July 25 Reuters poll now shows a result that reflects a 5.3 percentage point flip from the previously published results, he said.

“Now look at July 26,” he said. “On July 26 they had Trump at 41.5 percent and Hillary at 36.3. That was a 5.2 Trump margin. Then, in the new calculation, they claim that Clinton was 41.1 percent, Trump was 37.5, and the margin was 3.6 for Clinton. Same poll. Two different results. Recalculated, after you’ve announced the other results.”

“What you get is an 8.8 percentage point margin change, almost nine points swinging from one candidate, based on some phony, some bizarre allocation theory that you claim you know where these people are or you are just leaving them out,” he said. “I actually believe they are allocating them because they are claiming they are really Clinton voters and they are using something to move them to Clinton.” 

“This comes as close as I have ever seen to cooking the results,” said the legendary pollster and political consultant. “I suppose you can get away with it in polling because there are no laws. But, if this was accounting, they would put them in jail.”"


Trump has accepted the invitation to meet with Mexico's president on Wednesday, August 31, 2016

8/30/16: Trump has accepted the invitation to meet with Mexico's president:

Donald J. Trump twitter


Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Hillary lead cut in half in new national Monmouth poll August 25-28, 2016, now leads Trump by only 7 points among likely voters, 3.7 error margin-ABC News

August 25-28, 2016, Monmouth University Poll, 689 likely voters nationwide, error margin 3.7 (parag. 4). Live telephone interviews, land line and cell phone. Self identified 28R, 40Ind, 32D, p. 6. 47% male, 53% female. Poll Report with tables
8/29/16, "Hillary Clinton's Lead Cut in Half in New National Poll," ABC News, Ryan Struyk
"Hillary Clinton's wide lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House has been cut in half, according to a new national Monmouth University poll released today. 

The Democratic nominee held a wide 50 percent to 37 percent lead in the wake of her party’s convention in a Monmouth poll in early August, but now that lead appears to have tightened to 7 percentage points -- 46 percent to 39 percent among likely voters....

The change shows some signs of a post-convention bump wearing off among likely voters: She’s lost

10 percentage points among nonwhites
9 points among college grads, 
6 points among liberals and Democrats."...


Trump leads Hillary by 2.8 points, 45.1 to 42.3 in USC Dornsife LA Times Daybreak Presidential poll, August 29, 2016

Trump 45.1
Hillary 42.3

8/29/16, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll

Hillary dropped 2.3 points 8/26-8/29. 44.6 on 8/26 to 42.3 on 8/29. Trump up 1.8 in same 4 days. At the moment, Hillary seems to have a problem.   


Monday, August 29, 2016

Powerful forces have reduced working class wages around the world. US political parties thus have limited means with which to attract votes of working class white men-Newsweek, Sept. 2014, Cooper

Sept. 2014 article anticipating Nov. 2014 midterm elections and how working class white men will vote notes that powerful forces have reduced working class wages around the world: "Whichever approach is taken by the political parties to lure the white working class, it’s going to have to go up against powerful forces that have reduced working-class wages around the globe."...(subhead, "Hard Hats Are Long Gone") 

9/25/2014, "Why Working-Class White Men Make Democrats Nervous," Newsweek, by Matthew Cooper 

"Democrats Are Nervous"

"Working-class white men used to go with the Democratic Party like hot dogs and mustard. And now? Well, not so much. The complex political allegiances of noncollege voters—and particularly noncollege white men—get less attention than the rise of the Hispanic voter. The white working-class percentage of the electorate may be on the decline, but white working-class men remain a voting bloc neither party can afford to ignore....

White noncollege voters aren’t all cultural conservatives, but they often lean that way—and Obama’s progressive politics have pushed them further away from the Democrats....

The story of what makes white working-class men vote and in which direction is a complex one. They’re not monolithic by region or religion. And it’s not easy to measure them by occupation either, so pollsters use the index that’s easiest to measure and less prone to error, even though it’s less than perfect: whether they went to college....

While this might conjure up the image of a construction or factory worker, these days most noncollege white males are more likely to be found in low-end office jobs or in retail sales as cashiers—two of the fastest growing job categories in America. But what a disproportionate number of noncollege white men seem to have in common, according to polls, is a profound sense of aggrievement.... 

When asked whether government should do more to solve national problems or leave more to individuals to decide, Americans overall split, 45 percent in favor of more government intervention to 51 percent against. By contrast, a full 62 percent of white working-class men said government should do less.

“You look across the board and they’re outliers. That is really powerful, and once their income started declining, they became very receptive to Republican arguments that [the government was] taking your money and giving it to others,” says Ronald Brownstein of Atlantic Media, an expert in white working-class voting who mined the data and used the results of a Pew poll in June.

That sense of aggrievement also has a cultural element. Today it's socially acceptable to poke fun at "white men" or "white guys." For working-class white men who have seen their wages and wealth drop as the economy has come to value “brain” workers more than manual laborers, there’s no feeling of white privilege, even if their lot is far better than being a minority in poverty. Indeed, with women now more likely to enter and finish college than men, and enjoying better health and longer life expectancy, the frustration of poorly educated white men is understandable.

“If you’re a white male and you don’t have a college degree, you’re struggling and frustrated; and often you’re not going to blame yourself,” says Ed Sarpolus, a nonpartisan pollster in Michigan who has studied working-class voters.

No group has declined more in standing, notes John Lapin of the Center for American Progress, who has studied the working-class vote. Indeed, the white poverty rate is accelerating much faster than the minority poverty rate, and the white working class is among the most pessimistic groups in the country—more even than poor blacks or poor Hispanics.

Declining union membership...

But working-class whites are not the same as they were even 10 years ago. With family breakup accelerating, they’re more likely to live in single-parent households and have out-of-wedlock births at rates higher than in 1965, when Daniel Patrick Moynihan, later a U.S. senator, issued The Negro Family: The Case for National Action, his controversial report about the breakup of black families.

And there are important regional differences. Working-class whites in the South are much more estranged from the Democratic Party....An even closer parsing of data shows how the collapse of Democratic support among white working-class voters extends beyond the South to the mountain West and Plains States. The president garnered a majority in Maine and Vermont....

The big question is how Hillary Clinton might fare with these voters, should she run for president in 2016. There are some indicators in her favor. She’s part of a Clinton brand that won two presidential elections in part by minimizing the loss of noncollege white men....Whether the narrow pool of Democratic primary voters will prove representative of voters as a whole is a question that will occupy Democratic strategists between now and 2016.

Still, staffers in Hillaryland had a saying that, among women, you could tell a (white) Hillary voter by her shoes, specifically whether they’re worn out from standing much of the day, as would be those belonging to a waitress, a teacher or a nurse. But a new Quinnipiac University poll, Brownstein notes, shows her with only 27 percent of the white noncollege male vote—behind even Obama’s 31 percent.

Of course, Hillary wouldn’t need to win these voters; she would only have to stop the hemorrhaging of them to the Republicans. “She’s not going to carry [white] noncollege voters. It’s not like they have to get these voters to love them,” says Ruy Teixeira, author of several books on how the white working-class votes....

Reihan Salam of National Review and Ross Douthat of The New York Times have written, in their book Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream, that far from cultural issues being bait and switch, as Democrats charge, they are essential to working-class survival:  

Public disorder, family disintegration, cultural fragmentation and civic and religious disaffection...breed downward mobility and financial strainwhich in turn breeds further social dislocation, in a vicious cycle that threatens to transform a working class into an underclass.”

Hard Hats Are Long Gone

Whichever approach is taken by the political parties to lure the white working class, it’s going to have to go up against powerful forces that have reduced working-class wages around the globe. An economy that values more education and higher skills needs to make a special effort to assist those left behind.

The pollster Stanley Greenberg was a key architect of Bill Clinton’s 1992 election. He studied white-majority Macomb County in Michigan, which had drifted from the Democratic fold. He found what’s now a familiar pattern of alienation among working- and middle-class whites from the Democratic Party over everything from taxes to the death penalty.

He’s more sanguine than many about the Democrats’ prospects with white working-class voters and sees them, at least outside the South, Border States and parts of the Mountain West, as persuadable. “It’s where race and religion meet,” he says of those uncompetitive areas. But he thinks that when Democrats stop thinking of working-class whites as factory-floor hard hats—“They’re long gone,” he half jokes—and more likely cashiers and customer-service representatives, they’ll be able to compete more effectively for their votes.

Andrew Levison, author of The White Working Class Today: Who They Are, How They Think, and How Progressives Can Regain Their Support, shares Greenberg’s view about how many persuadable working-class voters remain. But he thinks a populist appeal isn’t enough....

It may be that, in time, demographics will settle the matter, as women and minorities vote in ever larger numbers, making the working-class white male less relevant to elections and to the economy. But no voice in American life should be ignored, even if it lacks the punch it once had.

Franklin Roosevelt lauded “the forgotten man.” (Conservatives have used the phrase, too, and did so even before Roosevelt, who popularized it.) In an ideal world, each party would engage in a contest of ideas to help working-class voters. Election Day is close, but that day is a long way off."


Trump ahead 44, Hillary 43.6, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak national poll, August 28, 2016


8/28/16, "The USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak national poll"

Trump 44.0
Hillary 43.6


Sunday, August 28, 2016

At least 64 Islamic terror suspects are members of the German army which currently doesn't screen potential recruits for jihadist tendencies. Taxpayer funded army training enables terrorists to plot future murders of taxpayers in Europe or abroad-UK Telegraph, 8/28/16

8/28/16, "German army wants security checks for recruits after admitting more than 60 [ISIS] Isil suspects in its ranks," UK Telegraph, James Rothwell

"The German army has said it wants tougher security checks on recruits after admitting that more than 60 Islamists are suspected of infiltrating its ranks
In a draft amendment seen by German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, senior Bundeswehr officials said all applicants should be screened by the intelligence services for jihadist links before they begin basic training.

And they disclosed that 64 Islamists are already feared to have embedded themselves within the armed forces, along with 268 right-wing extremists and six left-wing extremists.

Terrorists are attracted to the army because they can use the training to plot future terror attacks in Germany, the document added.

“The German army trains all of its members in the handling and usage of weapons of war,” it said,[terrorists] could use those skills acquired in the army to carry out well-prepared acts of violence at home or abroad.”

The proposals would lead to a major overhaul of the country’s recruiting policy as under the current system soldiers are only checked for Islamist ties once they have enlisted.

They would also require an extra 90 military officials to be hired in order to carry out a further 20,000 checks per year.

The reforms, which would cost an estimated 8.2 million euros (£6.9m) per year, are expected to be approved by German commanders next week, Welt am Sonntag reported.

A Defence Ministry spokesman said the government was still in the process of debating the law, which if approved would come into force in July 2017. 

Germany is on high alert following a spate of deadly attacks last July, two of which were claimed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil).

On July 18 an Afghan refugee attacked passengers with an axe on a regional train in southern Germany, injuring four people before he was shot by police.

Officials said they found an Isil [ISIS] flag in the 17-year-old’s room and it later emerged that he had pledged allegiance to the group in a video posted online.

A week later, on July 25th, a Syrian refugee blew himself up in the southern town of Ansbach, killing himself in the blast and wounding 12 others. 

When police raided his flat they found violent videos, bomb making materials and a message on his mobile phone in which he said he carried out the attack on behalf of  Isil leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Thomas de Maziere, the German Interior Minister, has already called for tougher security measures which would include a ban on the burka and legal reforms that would make it easier to deport terror suspects.

He is also in favour of a Europe-wide proposal to force the developers of encrypted messaging services such as Telegram to hand over data to the security services.

Telegram has attracted controversy in the past for being popular among Isil fighters, who use the network to trade weapons and plot attacks while remaining anonymous."

"Additional reporting by Reuters"