Der Spiegel noting scientific consensus of global warming pause now looks at future of climate modeling

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"Global warming has stalled for 15 years. Experts thus are having doubts on the reliability of their prognoses. The temperature development is moving along the lowest margins of the UN scenarios.”"

4/3/13, "News from the geological research: Imposing climate predictions, protection against earthquakes, meteor roar," Der Spiegel, Axel Bojanowski

"The climate has developed in recent times other than expected.... Experts cherish therefore doubts about the reliability of their predictions. The development of the temperature hovers at the bottom of the UN scenarios. But now there is to report a success: The climate trend over a longer period would have anticipated some scenarios amazingly well, report researchers in the journal "Nature Geoscience."

The faltering of the warming in recent years, but remains a mystery. Seen more than two decades, however, the temperature did almost exactly that leap, the simulations have been foreseen in 1999, write Myles Allen of Oxford University, and his colleagues. The average global temperature over the past decade lies a quarter of a degree above the average temperature between 1986 and 1996. Such an increase was expected in a forecast in 1999, the researchers report.....

However, the question remains, what is true of climate models, the success: Allen's 1999 forecast showed a moderate temperature increase, more drastic scenarios, however, are not yet arrived. Therefore, many researchers now cherish the hope pessimistic climate projections could be wrong."...

"Second Part: hope braked climate change..."

"Equally amazing is that it is precisely the tropical air has since satellite measurements barely warmed 1979. It say climate forecasts for the region the strongest rise in temperature before - huge amounts of water vapor should the greenhouse effect actually there. "There is no simple explanation for this, except that the planet can effectively get rid of the heat, as is expected from models," writes Bengtsson.

Possible, that is clouding the heating stronger brake than expected. It could also be that the increased greenhouse effect will overrated, because not as much water vapor in the air gelange was assumed. Perhaps much of the country as well as thermal energy in the deep ocean. "Whatever," says the retired climatologist, "global warming is progressing slower than expected." There is therefore hope that climate change is proceeding less dramatic than expected." (google translation from German)

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Pierre Gosselin says of the above:

4/3/13, "Both Bengtsson and Spiegel are somewhat astonished that the Earth refuses to warm up. Bojanowski sums it up in Part 2:

Thus there is hope that climate change is progressing less dramaticly than suspected.”

Here you have to read between the lines. What Spiegel really wants to say is: We’ve stopped believing in the climate catastrophe. The climate models have performed like crap, but we are not yet ready to come out and admit it.
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Remember, admitting you’ve been wrong for a quarter century takes time."

4/3/13, "Spiegel Stops Believing…”Hot Debate Over Climate: How Reliable Are The Prognoses?” Growing Doubts Over Models!" P. Gosselin, NoTricksZone

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Scientists agree global warming has paused, UK Met Office predicts no warming until at least 2017:

1/18/13, "Climate change: scientists puzzle over halt in global warming," by Axel Bojanowski

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"How much our climate is warming real? NASA researchers have shown that the temperature rise in 15 years takes a break. At the same time, there are indications that shifts the problem: The environment could be a completely different place preliminary heat."

"But long ago has become common knowledge that the climate has recently developed differently than predicted for 15 years increased the heating , the upward trend in the average global temperature has not continued since 1998. "The stalemate has led to the suggestion that global warming had stopped," admits the Nasa.

The British Met Office forecast even more recently that the temperature interval could continue at a high level until the end of 2017 - despite the rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions . Then global warming would pause 20 years. How many years, this is a now common question, because the temperature would still falter, climate scientists to rethink their forecasts of future warming?

15 years without warming the air near the ground is now over. The stalemate in the average temperature shows that the uncertainties of climate predictions are surprisingly large."...(google translation from German)

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3/27/13, "Test of a decadal climate forecast," Nature Geoscience, nature.com, Myles R. Allen, John F. B. Mitchell, & Peter A. Stott  (subscrip.)