Monday, October 15, 2012

Today's ABC/Washington Post poll puts Romney ahead by 2 pts. if you use a D+3 sample instead of the D+9 sample ABC/WaPo uses-Battleground Watch

.
10/15/12, "Romney Actually Leading Based on Today’s ABC/Washington Post Poll, " Battleground Watch

"I’m hesitant to do this with every poll but after the below monstrosity from ABC/Washington Post, it was worth the time to rework the poll with a more reasonable election turnout.  The largest bone of contention is that the party identification had a Democrat advantage of 9 percentage points more Democrats surveyed than Republicans which in shorthand is D +9.  

This exceeds the best-in-a generation turnout advantage Obama had in 2008 which was 7 percentage points more Democrats or D +7.  But what if that absurd disparity in turnout was a more reasonable turnout of D +3 which is also the historic average over the last 7 Presidential elections?...

Now we see the lead has flip-flopped and coincidentally, if we use rounded numbers, the vote totals are the exact opposite of the ABC/Washington Post results and Mitt Romney is leading 49 to 46. But I included the decimal places because you can see the real lead is only 2.07-points and the rounding misleads on the overall margin.

This is why voter registration, enthusiasm and turnout
are all essential to any successful campaign. Mitt Romney is almost certainly leading in this election but if Democrats meet or exceed their advantage at the ballot box like they achieved in 2008, they will almost certainly win the election.
Thankfully as we have shown countless times, as in the take down of the ABC/Washington Post poll below, all the evidence points to a dramatically different turnout on election day in favor of Republicans relative to 2008."

======================

comments to Battleground Watch post

======================

"housebroken dad
Posted October 15, 2012 at 9:28 am | Permalink | Reply

I’m more worried about tomorrow’s moderator, Mrs “This ticket is a death wish” Candy Crowley than some bias stupid lamestream media poll: http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/14/moderator-role-under-scrutiny-before-the-debate/"

==================== 

"Eric
Posted October 15, 2012 at 9:33 am | Permalink | Reply

I do think that a D+3 model is very unrealistic as well. I expect somewhere between D+1 and R+4.

The reason for that is based on the Rasmussen party ID numbers. I’ve got to lengths explaining this on race42012, but in short the Wisconsin election results verify that Rasmussen’s numbers are correct.

The Wisconsin recall election had a turnout of R+1, compared with D+1 in 2010 and D+6 in 2008. Rasmussen’s numbers were very accurate in 2008 and 2010. They also showed a 2-point shift from 2010 to 2012, which was mirrored in the 2012 Wisconsin results (D+1 to R+1).

Additionally, Rasmussen has shown a further 1 point shift from even June towards the Republicans in partisan affiliation. That points toward a national advantage of around R+2.

R+2 is a reasonable turnout model for 2012. I would accept as reasonable anything between R+4 and D+1. Anything beyond that is absurd."


.

No comments: