Pew Poll, Romney leads Obama by 4 pts. among likely voters, tie 47-47 among likely women voters, Oct. 4-7

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10/8/12, "Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead," Pew Research Center

"Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing....Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama. Coming out of the debate, Mitt Romney’s personal image has improved. His favorable rating has hit 50% among registered voters for the first time in Pew Research Center surveys and has risen five points since September. At the same time, Obama’s personal favorability rating has fallen from 55% to 49%.

In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters
, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters."...via Breitbart
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10/8/12, "Pew: Romney Takes 4 Point Lead, Beats Obama on Favorability," Breitbart, John Nolte

"In a breathtaking turnaround, Governor Mitt Romney has erased is 8 point deficit in a Pew poll taken in mid-September, and is now four points ahead of the president, 49-45%. It's important to note that this poll is of likely voters and was taken after Romney obliterated Obama n their first debate. Also, of the four days in the poll sample, three of those include the Friday jobs report.

The poll's internals all look very good for Romney:

He's tied with Obama among registered voters, 46-46%. In September, Obama was ahead, 51-42%.
67% of Romney's support is strong, up from 56%.  This ties him with Obama. But in the area of intensity or "given a lot of thought to the election,"  Romney has a 15 point lead:  82-65%.

The worst two data points for Obama, however, are these:

Obama has lost his advantage among women. Both are tied at 47%. Last month Obama had an 18% advantage.

Obama's even lost his favorability advantage. Romney's hit 50%, Obama's sunk to 49%.

What we're seeing in many polls -- both state and national --  is Obama slipping further below the 50% mark. Post-convention, Obama was at or near that vital (for an incumbent) marker pretty frequently. Now we're seeing him at 45%, 47%, 48% again. Today's Gallup tracking poll put Obama at 50%, but that's registered voters. Which means he's probably at  47% or 48%.

Thirty days out and polling at these numbers is the last place an incumbent wants to be.

One note of warning. This sample of likely voters has a R+3 skew, which feels optimistic to me."

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